Duke Energy: Robust Regulated GrowthDuke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)BATS:DUKFreedomHoldingDuke Energy: Robust Regulated Growth, Strengthening Financials, and Stable Dividends Duke Energy Corporation is one of the largest energy companies in the United States, a Fortune 150 entity with a high share of regulated business and a defensive, capital-intensive growth profile. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, the company has a long history of stable earnings growth and consistent dividend increases. The company operates a large transmission and distribution system in the Southeastern and Midwestern United States, serving states with strong demographic and industrial activity that supports steady demand growth for energy. Duke is modernizing both its grid and generation infrastructure, improving the resilience and reliability of energy supply. A substantial portion of capital is allocated to grid digitalization projects, flexible generation development, and strengthening resilience against extreme weather events, which reinforces the operating base and makes results less sensitive to regulatory volatility. Investment Highlights • Large investment cycle supporting steady earnings growth. Duke Energy is reinforcing its growth foundation through a large, multiyear investment program: the current five-year capital plan for 2025–2029 amounts to $87 billion, and the next plan for 2026–2030 is estimated at $95–105 billion. Investments are directed toward grid upgrades, infrastructure modernization, and the addition of new generation capacity, which raises the projected earnings base growth from ~8% to above 8.5% annually. The 2025 results already reflect the impact of these investments: adjusted EPS for the third quarter increased by ~12% y/y due to new rate implementations, riders, and volume growth. Management has also reaffirmed its long-term target for adjusted EPS growth of 5–7% per year through 2029, with annual guidance of $6.25–6.35 for 2025. This combination of a large investment base and already visible EPS acceleration forms a strong multi-year driver of shareholder returns. • Earnings growth and strengthening of the operating platform. Duke Energy is already demonstrating improved financial performance in 2025: earnings growth reflects the impact of new rates and higher retail volumes. In the Electric Utilities & Infrastructure segment, adjusted results increased by $194 million y/y, supported by rate cases, riders, and volume drivers that partially offset unfavorable weather and higher interest expenses. Storm impacts were significant, but mitigation mechanisms helped offset their effects. Overall, segment earnings growth, strengthening of base earnings through rate decisions, and normalization of storm impacts are already forming a stronger financial profile that supports further expansion of the earnings base. • Improved credit profile and strong financial discipline. Duke Energy maintains a resilient credit profile thanks to consistent regulatory outcomes: in Kentucky Electric, an annual revenue increase of ~$44 million was approved with ROE of 9.8% and equity at 52.7%; in Kentucky Gas, $21.6 million was agreed under the same parameters. In South Carolina, Duke Energy Progress reached a partial settlement with ROE ~9.9% and equity at 53%, while Duke Energy Carolinas has requested ~$151 million in annual revenue increases (not yet approved). Management targets FFO/Debt ≥14% by the end of 2025 and around 15% thereafter—levels above Moody’s and S&P thresholds. To support these metrics, Duke issued about $1 billion in storm-recovery bonds in North Carolina and expects to issue another ~$600 million in South Carolina. As self-supporting, non-recourse instruments repaid through tariff surcharges, they do not require corporate liquidity and protect FFO/Debt despite being consolidated in total debt. Separately, completion of the recovery of $1.1 billion in Florida storm costs by early 2026 ensures reimbursement of incurred expenses and reduces pressure on operating cash flows. Additional flexibility will be provided by planned asset sales in Tennessee and part of Florida operations, with proceeds covering equity needs for 2026. For 2027–2029, Duke plans to issue about $4.5 billion in equity and finance incremental capex with an equity share of 30–50%, preserving predictability in executing the investment program. • Stable dividend profile and predictable returns. Duke Energy maintains the status of a reliable dividend utility: a yield of about 3.4% and a payout ratio target of 60–70% ensure a stable and predictable dividend policy. Earnings growth in 2025 reaffirms the company’s ability to comfortably cover dividends, while its broad regulated customer base reduces earnings volatility. Against this backdrop, Duke offers a stable dividend stream and moderate earnings growth—a combination valued in conservative portfolios. Target Price: $138.31