Karachi, 17 November 2025 – The Pakistani rupee opened the week on an even keel, with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) daily mark-to-market (M2M) currency rates sheet showing almost no change in the dollar or Gulf-pegged currencies. The interbank reference rate for the US dollar was fixed at Rs 280.7115 for spot delivery, barely two paisa away from Friday’s close, while forward premiums out to twelve months remained compressed—an indication that banks and corporates see little near-term volatility in the exchange market.Priority Currencies – Detailed AnalysisUS Dollar (USD) – 280.71 (spot)The world’s reserve currency has now traded inside a 90-paisa range for seven consecutive sessions. One-week forwards are quoted at 280.88, implying a carrying cost of only 17 paisa—less than 0.06 %. The tight band is being read by treasury desks as tacit approval from the central bank for the current level, especially after last week’s $1.2 billion bilateral inflow from Saudi Arabia. A senior dealer at a large domestic bank said, “Liquidity is comfortable; exporters are selling every uptick above 281.00 while oil importers are buying dips. The equilibrium looks durable at least until the next IMF tranche discussion in December.”Saudi Riyal (SAR) – 74.85The Kingdom’s currency remains the single most important bilateral unit for Pakistan, channeling annual remittances worth $6.7 billion. Today’s spot rate translates into exactly 74.85 paisa per halala, with one-month forwards at 74.90—effectively flat. Exchange companies report brisk demand from prospective Hajj pilgrims who are locking in rates now rather than waiting for the traditional December rush. “We expect SAR/PKR to stay glued to 74.80-75.20 through early 2026,” remarked the head of treasury at a leading exchange company in Lahore.UAE Dirham (AED) – 76.43Dirham inflows—mostly from Dubai-based construction and logistics workers—account for 28 % of total home remittances. The spot quote of 76.43 puts the implied USD/PKR cross at the same 280.71 level used by the SBP, confirming zero arbitrage. Forward points are equally thin: six-month AED is 77.72, an annualised premium of only 1.1 %. Currency retailers say the stability has encouraged UAE employers to switch more salary disbursements to official banking channels, a trend that should support the rupee into the winter months.Qatari Riyal (QAR) – 77.01Qatar’s riyal trades at a 1.5 % premium to SAR, reflecting the minor difference in USD cross-rates on LSEG Workspace rather than any Pakistan-specific factor. Spot QAR is 77.01; one-year forward is 80.33, implying 4.3 % annualised depreciation—almost identical to the SAR curve. With QatarEnergy still hiring Pakistani labour for LNG expansion projects, bankers expect Qatari flows to pick up in the second half of FY-26.Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) – 915.29The world’s highest-valued currency remains comfortably above 900. Despite Kuwait’s fiscal surplus from elevated oil prices, the dinar’s USD-peg keeps KWD/PKR moves purely a function of the rupee’s own fortunes. Today’s 915.29 spot compares with 914.80 exactly one month ago—a gain of just 49 paisa. Twelve-month forwards at 962.67 pencil out to 5.2 % annualised rupee weakness, marginally wider than SAR or AED due to lower dinar liquidity rather than macro concern.Bahraini Dinar (BHD) – 744.54Bahrain’s currency shadows KWD but trades at a slight discount because of Manama’s lower sovereign rating. Spot BHD is 744.54; six-month forward 755.23, an annualised 2.9 %—the flarest curve among Gulf units. Bahrain is a small but stable source of IT and hospitality remittances; dealers do not foresee any breakout from the 740-750 range this fiscal year.Australian Dollar (AUD) – 183.45The “Aussie” has clawed back 2.4 % against the rupee since early October, helped by firmer coal quotations on the Newcastle index and a Reserve Bank of Australia that is still talking hikes. Spot AUD buys 183.45; one-year forward is 191.39, implying 4.3 % annualised rupee depreciation—almost the same as QAR, underscoring how commodity currencies are pricing gradual PKR softness rather than a cliff-edge. Exporters of textiles to Melbourne are selling forward six-month receivables at 186.60, locking in a premium over domestic forwards.Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 200.24The “Loonie” has held above the psychological 200 mark for three straight weeks, underpinned by West Texas Intermediate hovering near $78 a barrel. Spot CAD is 200.24; twelve-month forward 212.10, an annualised 5.9 %—the steepest curve among the eight priority units, reflecting thinner CAD liquidity and the currency’s historic beta to oil. Importers of pulses from Saskatchewan are said to be covering February shipments early, wary of possible winter supply disruptions.Other Majors Euro opened at 325.96, essentially flat on the week despite Friday’s mixed German Ifo data; one-year forward is 346.00, translating into 6.1 % annualised rupee weakness. Sterling buys 369.84, little moved after Bank of England rhetoric cooled rate-cut bets. Japanese yen remains the cheapest major at 1.81 per unit, but forwards price 7.7 % annualised PKR decline—the steepest among G-10 pairs owing to ultra-low yen carry. Swiss franc is 353.79; Singapore dollar 215.82; Swedish krona 29.71; Norwegian krone 27.80; Danish krone 43.65; New Zealand dollar 159.64; Chinese yuan 39.51; Turkish lira 6.63; Russian ruble 3.46; Indian rupee 3.17; Bangladeshi taka 2.30—all inside well-worn ranges and implying no event-risk premium ahead of the IMF’s first-quarter 2026 review.Market Context & OutlookThe uniformly narrow forward premiums—barely 5-6 % annualised even for the least-liquid pairs—tell currency desks that both importers and exporters believe the State Bank has enough cover to defend the rupee through the winter remittance season. Reserves have risen $1.5 billion in six weeks to $14.8 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) slipped to 98.2 in October, a level the IMF considers “competitive but not undervalued.” Unless oil spikes above $90 or political noise disrupts the Fund programme, traders expect USD/PKR to remain hand-cuffed to the 279-282 corridor for the rest of 2025, dragging the rest of the currency mosaic along in its slipstream.