USD/JPY — Monthly Outlook (Technical + Macro + Policy)US Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYNadia_farhatUSD/JPY — Monthly Outlook (Technical + Macro + Policy) * The USD/JPY pair remains under broad long-term downward pressure, driven by persistent rate differentials and Japan’s push for fiscal expansion. * The current zone around 155 has historical significance as these levels were last seen in the early 1990s (almost 35 years ago), highlighting the extraordinary extent of yen depreciation. * At the same time, Japan is now considering a ¥17 trillion fiscal stimulus package, which is fundamentally yen-negative. * Expansionary fiscal policy, without matching monetary tightening, typically accelerates currency depreciation. - This increases the probability that USD/JPY retests the psychological 160 handle. Source of News: https://lnkd.in/dWytRwDb Technical Structure (Monthly Inverted Chart) - The pair remains in a long-term uptrend on the USD/JPY axis (yen weakening). - Price continues to hold above the 145 support and is hovering above 150, around 154.80. Key Levels: - 155 → Historically watched intervention zone for BoJ; markets remember 2023–2024. - 160 → The line where BoJ/MOF have repeatedly signaled discomfort and, earlier, intervened. - 145–148 → Major multi-year support. A sustained break below this range would be structurally yen-positive, but that is unlikely without a major policy shift. What to Expect Going Forward - USD/JPY continues drifting higher toward 160 But - It might fail to sustain any breakout above 160–162 due to intervention risk by BoJ/ MOF, creating the classic "intervention ceiling" scenario.