Gold’s 4th Best Year in 200 Years – And Why That Terrifies MeGoldOANDA:XAUUSDflaximusSince April 2025, in my view, gold has entered its first **meaningful corrective structure** in a long time. After the accumulation phase between May and August, we saw an almost **60-day, uninterrupted bull trend**. I believe this move was driven largely by **speculative flows** combined with **political tensions**, rather than by classic macro overheating. During this period, gold printed **record after record**, which naturally makes short sellers very interested in the asset. On the **4H timeframe**, price has made **two clear all-time highs**, forming a very obvious **double top**. After rejection from the ATH area, a **descending channel** has started to form. Zooming out to the **monthly timeframe**, RSI has reached its **highest level since the early 1970s** (around 1973). It’s worth noting that in **1971** the United States abandoned the gold standard, which makes these extremes in RSI historically significant. From a **seasonality / long-term performance** perspective, using almost 200 years of data, this year ranks as **the 4th best annual performance for gold**, after 1979, 1973 and 1974. Yes, you read that correctly: in the last ~200 years, this is one of gold’s strongest years. On an **inflation-adjusted chart**, gold is again trading around a **historical all-time high**. If we compare gold with **US external debt** since 2000, or with the **global supply of US dollars in circulation**, gold has also shown an **extraordinary outperformance**. The reason I’m going this deep into the macro backdrop is simple: while **traditional economic indicators do not show extreme overheating**, gold itself looks **extremely overheated** to me. This has pushed me, for quite some time, to look for a **“big short” setup in gold**. It is still early to definitively call this *the* top, but once the top is obvious to everyone, the best short entry is usually already gone. Back to the chart: I think price can at least **revisit the bottom of the current descending channel**. By the time we get there, I expect that zone to roughly align with the **100-day moving average** and the **1.618 Fibonacci extension of the April correction**. For now, price is still riding the **20-day moving average** as support, but **momentum loss** is visible. If we see a **20MA–50MA death cross**, I expect the downside move to deepen. Should price lose the **100-day MA**, I believe there is a very high probability (in my opinion around 99%) that the **200-day MA** will be tested next. I estimate that level to be around **$3,500**, which also coincides with the previous major ATH zone on my chart. **Disclaimer:** This is **not investment advice**. It is purely an **amateur, fundamentals-tilted technical analysis** written for my own use. Please **do your own research** and manage your own risk.