#202546 - priceactiontds - weekly update – nasdaq e-miniMicro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index FuturesCME_MINI:MNQ1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Again, not much difference to dax. Also in a triangle and for now I highly doubt we will see a big range expansion out of 24600 - 25500. We had two weeks where the bears showed strength but what do they have to show for? We closed above 25000 in both weeks. That’s still as bullish as it gets. Only a bearish daily close below 24600 could change my outlook. current market cycle: trading range 24000 - 26500 / 4h chart it’s a triangle 24700 - 25500 key levels for next week: 24500 - 25500 bull case: Bulls bought 24700 heavily again and closed the week above 25000. Bears can have no confidence in shorts when we rally for 667 points after a 1095 point drop. Problem for the bulls is that they also have to be very careful with buying high again since the downside can be huge. Which will likely mean that we won’t see much interest in buying above 25400ish. Even longing 25000 when we can drop down to 24600 or lower, is a tough trade. Invalidation is below 24709. bear case: Every dip is heavily bought. Has not changed. Can only become more bearish with a daily close below 24000 and that’s far. 25830 is likely the stop, most bears have to have for most shorts next week. That’s a big range and it any short below 25300 from being decent imo. We are making lower highs and lower lows but the lower lows just barely. Until that changes, we will most likely continue sideways in the given range. Invalidation is above 25830. short term: Neutral around 25000. Short closer to 25700 and longs closer to 25600. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-02: Market went further in the wrong direction so my targets become increasingly unrealistic. Right now the 50% retracement is 21750 and would mean a 18% drop. That’s a bit too much to ask for as of now. 24150 is the breakout-retest of the prior ath from 2024-12 and a more realistic target.