India’s agricultural exports are growing at a faster pace than overall merchandise exports.Government data shows the value of farm produce exports in April-September 2025, at $25.9 billion, to have registered an 8.8% jump over the $23.8 billion for the corresponding six months of 2024.That’s more than the 2.9% growth of the country’s total goods exports, from $213.7 billion in April-September 2024 to $219.9 billion in April-September 2025.During the 2024-25 financial year (April-March), too, India’s farm exports grew by 6.4% (from $48.8 billion to $52 billion), as against the measly 0.1% rise for all merchandise exports (from $437.1 billion to $437.7 billion).Export growth driversTable 1 shows India’s leading agricultural export items, whose value of shipments exceeded $1 billion in 2024-25.The export growth this fiscal has been powered by non-basmati rice, buffalo meat, marine products, coffee, and fruits & vegetables.In non-basmati rice, the buoyancy has been largely thanks to the lifting of restrictions on shipments, imposed between September 2022 and August 2023 to rein in domestic food inflation pressures. That included an outright ban on exports of broken and white non-basmati rice, and a 20% duty on parboiled shipments.Story continues below this adWith those curbs gradually eased, on the back of consecutive good monsoons from 2024 and overflowing stocks in government godowns, non-basmati exports are on track to overtake the $6.5-billion record achieved during the last fiscal.Buffalo meat exports are also set to surpass the previous high of $4.8 billion in 2014-15, if the present growth rate is sustained for the rest of this fiscal. Equally significant is marine products, the exports of which have gone up by 17.4% in the first half of this fiscal and could end up bettering the $8.1 billion all-time-high of 2022-23.The US accounted for $2.7 billion or 36.2% of India’s marine products exports of $7.4 billion in 2024-25. Given that, one would have expected the over-58% effective tariff levied by the US President Donald Trump’s administration to have hugely impacted Indian seafood exports.However, the data for April-September 2025 over April-September 2024 points to an increase in exports (from $3.4 billion to $4 billion), despite a 0.4% dip to the US (to $1.3 billion). Indian seafood exporters have seemingly absorbed the Trump tariff shock by ramping up shipments to markets such as China, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, European Union and Canada.Story continues below this adCoffee exports from India have more than doubled from $738.9 million in 2019-20 to $1.8 billion in 2024-25. The current fiscal is likely to see it top $2 billion. The surge has been less due to the quantity of exports (up from 5.2 million to 6.2 million 60-kg bags between 2019-20 and 2024-25) and more courtesy of skyrocketing prices from global ending stocks for 2024-25 depleting to a 25-year-low.Exports of fruits & vegetables have been registering steady growth, both in fresh (from $1.4 billion in 2019-20 to $2.1 billion in 2024-25) and processed (from $958.5 million to $1.8 billion) forms. That trend has been maintained in the current fiscal as well.A rollercoaster rideIndian farm exports have exhibited considerable volatility in the last decade, collapsing from $43.3 billion in 2013-14 to $32.8 billion in 2015-16, before recovering to $41.9 in 2020-21, $50.2 billion in 2021-22 and the peak of $53.2 billion scaled in 2022-23.The above trend has broadly mirrored movements in international agri-commodity prices.Story continues below this adThe Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index plunged from an average of 119.1 points in 2013-14 to 90 points in 2015-16. The index – a weighted average of world prices of a basket of food commodities over a base period value (in this case, taken at 100 for 2014-16) – stayed at below 100 points till 2019-20, and then soared to 102.4, 133.1 and 140.6 points in the following three fiscals.As the FAO index has come down from those highs, it has been reflected in India’s agriculture exports falling to $48.8 billion in 2023-24 and $52 billion in 2024-25. Some of that has also been a result of export clampdowns – on a host of produce, from wheat, rice and sugar to onions and de-oiled rice bran – by the Narendra Modi government as part of its inflation-containment policy measures.The export performance in the second half of 2025-26 will be influenced both by global prices and the Trump tariffs.The FAO index averaged 126.4 points in October 2025, well below the record March 2022 level of 160.2 points immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it isn’t just the general index. The ‘cereals’ subindex, at 103.6 points in October 2025, was the lowest since August 2020. That for ‘sugar’, at 94.1 points, was also the lowest after December 2020. Going by past trends, bearish global commodity prices adversely affect exports from India.Story continues below this adAs for the Trump tariffs, the 26.9%, 45.1% and 17.8% drop in exports of marine products, spices and basmati rice respectively to the US in September is proof of their starting to bite. On the positive side, there are indications of a trade deal between India and the US materialising before the year end, even as Washington has apparently softened its earlier confrontational stance.Moreover, the US President, on Friday, rolled back his sweeping tariffs on several food products – including items like spices, coffee, tea and fresh fruits, in which India has export interests.Import trendsLike with exports, India’s farm produce imports have posted higher year-on-year growth during April-September 2025 (5.9%, from $18.4 billion to $19.5 billion), compared to overall imports (4.5%, from $358.9 billion to $375 billion).But unlike exports, which are well diversified, India’s import basket is quite narrow and limited to a few commodities (table 2). At No. 1 position is vegetable oils, the imports of which have risen by 13.5% in April-September this fiscal and are poised to close in on the $20.8 billion high of 2022-23.Story continues below this adAt second spot is pulses, where imports touched an unprecedented $5.5 billion in 2024-25. The current fiscal has seen a sharp decline, because of a bumper domestic crop and the Modi government reimposing import duties that were withdrawn during the high-inflation period from mid-2023 through much of 2024.The imports that have shown major expansion in recent times are of fresh fruits and raw cotton.In 2024-25, India imported fresh fruits worth over $3 billion, out of which $1.1 billion was from the US. In April-September this year, imports were at $1.5 billion, with the US’ share at $780.6 million or 50.4%. India has, thus, become a key market of the US, especially for almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other dry fruits.In raw cotton, India has turned from a net exporter to an importer. Imports are on course to cross $1.5 billion this fiscal, which is an outcome of domestic production shortfalls from no new yield-enhancing technologies after Bt cotton.