Bitcoin Is Crashing… Nasdaq Still at Highs. Who’s Lying?E-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI_DL:NQ1!OrbisInvestmentFor years, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 have shown consistently high correlation, driven by the same macro forces: • global liquidity cycles, • risk appetite, • real-rate expectations, • and flows into high-beta growth assets. Both are classic risk-on instruments—they benefit when liquidity expands and suffer when uncertainty rises. However, the chart above shows a significant decoupling over the past weeks: 🔻 BTCUSDT : Deep Correction & Negative YTD • Down more than 25% from the highs • Trading –5% YTD in USD terms • Volatility expanding and long liquidations accelerating • Risk sentiment turning sharply lower within crypto 🔺 NQ11 : Near All-Time Highs • Still hovering close to ATH levels • Posting +16% YTD in USD • Supported by strong earnings, mega-cap tech flows, and continued growth leadership ⚠️ This divergence is unusual — and historically meaningful BTC and Nasdaq rarely disconnect to this magnitude without one of two outcomes: 1️⃣ Bitcoin Is Leading the Next Risk-Off Move Crypto often reacts faster to changes in liquidity conditions and risk appetite. If this is another leading signal, equities (especially high-beta tech) may follow with a lag. 2️⃣ Correlation Break Is Temporary If the move was primarily crypto-specific (liquidations, funding resets, derivatives unwinds), BTC could mean-revert upward as flows stabilize. 📌 Our View Historically, when divergences of this scale have appeared: Bitcoin leads, equities follow. The magnitude of BTC’s correction vs the Nasdaq’s resilience suggests that: 👉 BTC may be pricing in a shift in risk conditions ahead of equities, not the opposite. The key question for the next weeks: Is the Nasdaq ignoring a message that crypto is already discounting?