BTC trend structure review BTCUSDT Perpetual ContractBYBIT:BTCUSDT.PartemfedorovBTC has just closed the week firmly below the 50‑week simple moving average – a key macro support level highlighted here since September. This materially increases the odds that the top of the current bullish cycle is already in, with the probability now estimated above 60%. Weekly chart: On the daily chart, a so‑called “death cross” is also forming, where the 50‑day moving average crosses below the 200‑day from above. In previous cycles this pattern often marked the start of a deeper corrective phase, but in the current cycle (off the 2022 lows) each “death cross” has so far been followed by a recovery rather than a prolonged bear phase. Daily chart: For this pattern to act as a local bottom signal again, bitcoin needs to carve out a short‑term low within roughly the next week. If there is no strong bounce during this window, the base case shifts toward another leg down (similar in structure to the move discussed in recent update in the MSTR article from Apr'25 - see MSTR link in "Related publications"), followed by a larger relief rally back toward the 200‑day moving average area to form a lower macro high (yellow projection on the chart). Potential trend structure: Key potential reaction levels to watch: 93215 - 91330 - 88500 - 85600/83350 (Apr bo rally level) 🕊 If the top of this macro cycle is indeed behind us, the lows of the next major correction are more likely to form no earlier than May of next year. This timing lines up with the expected departure of Jerome Powell from the Fed chair, an event that could open the door to more aggressive market stimulus under a new, politically more Trump‑aligned Federal Reserve leadership.