17/11/25 Market in Sideways Tight Trading RangeCrude Palm Oil FuturesMYX:FCPO1!Tech_Trader88Friday’s candlestick (Nov 14) was a doji closing near its high with a long tail below. In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bears get a strong bear bar or if the bulls could create a strong bull bar, which would create a bull body on the weekly candlestick. The market continued trading sideways in a tight trading range, and the weekly candlestick closed as a small bull doji. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low. If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move. They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control. They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the tight trading range with follow-through buying. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area. The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure. They see the current tight trading range as a pullback. They want a breakout below, followed by another strong leg down. If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, then resume its decline. Fundamentals • Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days. • Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures. • Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days. Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum. The market remains Always-In-Short. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline. However, he bulls have not yet been able to create decent buying pressure. The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively. If the pullback remains sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down towards 4000 will increase in the days/weeks ahead. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor. Today (Monday, Nov 17), traders will watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 9 trading days. Or if the market breaks from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time. Andrew