TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BTC (4H)Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTcryptodailyuk📉 1. Main trend – still down I see a clear downward trend channel (yellow lines) on the chart. The price is moving in the lower half of the channel, which means that supply pressure is still dominant. 2. Rebound, but under strong resistance The recent upside breakout looks more like a correction in a downtrend than a reversal. The closest resistance levels I see on the chart: 94,500 – 95,000 → EMA + local level 96,000 – 96,500 → next EMA 98,000 – 99,000 → key level where the SMAs are located Until BTC breaks above 96,500–97,000, there's no way a sustained trend reversal will occur. 3. Current Reaction at the SMA/EMA The price touched the red moving average (SMA?) but was rejected—a classic reaction in a downtrend. This signals: a lack of buying power, a predominance of supply in the 93,300–94,500 area. 4. Support Levels I See At the bottom, you have specific lines that make sense: 89,900–90,000 → key support 89,500 → marked level 87,600–86,500 → lower part of the channel + previous bounce If BTC loses 89,500, a move to the 87,000–86,500 area is very likely. 5. MACD – early, but cautious signal The MACD has started to move up, but: there is no clear crossover yet, the histogram is weak. Interpretation: The rebound continues, but there is no confirmation of a trend change. 6. RSI – slightly bullish, but neutral RSI ~49, so: it is not oversold, it is not overbought, there is room for both a further rebound and a decline. The RSI does not provide a strong directional signal. 📌 Summary – what looks most realistic? Baseline scenario (60% chance): continued decline Price will rebound to: 94,000–95,000, possibly to the upper band of the channel (95–96K), and be rejected → a decline to 89,500, and then 87,000–86,500. Bullish scenario (40%): breakout of the channel We need to see: a 4-hour candle close above 96,500, preferably a retest and hold, only then can we talk about a trend reversal and a move towards 98,500–100,000. 📈 Market assessment (neutral–bearish) Everything indicates that we are only in a correction within the descending channel. Until BTC breaks ~96.5K, the advantage is on the bears' side.