NattyGurl shortE-mini Natural Gas FuturesNYMEX_MINI:QG1!Spankky27Natural gas is absolutely screaming short right now and here's the setup everyone's missing we just came off a massive shoulder season where demand completely falls off a cliff because nobody needs heating and nobody's cranking air conditioning yet so inventories have been building like crazy and we're sitting way above the five year average for storage levels which puts a ceiling on any rally attempts then you look at the production side and US producers are pumping at near record levels because they were incentivized by those higher prices we saw earlier and now that supply is flooding the market right when we need it least the weather forecasts are showing mild temperatures across most of the country for the next two weeks which kills any weather premium that might've been baked in and let's not forget LNG export capacity isn't growing fast enough to absorb all this excess supply so it's just piling up domestically plus the technical setup is brutal we're seeing lower highs and lower lows forming with momentum indicators rolling over hard and every time natgas tries to bounce it gets sold into because the fundamentals are just too heavy the risk reward here favors the downside in a major way because even if we get a random cold snap or some production hiccup the upside is capped by those bloated inventories while the downside has plenty of room to run toward two dollars or lower if this oversupply situation persists through summer so yeah the trade is pretty obvious here you want to be short natgas and stay short until we see actual demand destruction on the supply side or storage levels start drawing down meaningfully.