Fundamental OverviewThe USD performance hasbeen mixed in the past days but still on net negative despite the decreasingDecember rate cut odds. It looks like the stock market is what has been drivingall other markets.In fact, when the stockmarket had positive days, we’ve seen Treasury yields and the US dollar rising,but when stocks performed poorly, Treasury yields and the greenback gave backthe gains. The market might be thinking that a selloff in the stock market isgoing to weigh significantly on the economy, eventually requiring the Fed tocut more or more aggressively. The focus now is of courseon the Fed and the US data ahead of the December FOMC meeting. The marketpricing is now showing just a 42% chance of a cut in December, so the data willhave the final say. I don't think the SeptemberNFP on Thursday is going to matter much if it's soft given that it's old data,but a strong report might be taken as meaningful because the market could thinkthat conditions were already getting better in September before the two ratecuts. Therefore, I think theNovember NFP is going to have the final say, which will hopefully get releasedjust before the FOMC meeting in December (we won't get the November CPI intime). On the JPY side, nothinghas changed. The currency has been weakening since the last BoJ policy decisionwhere the central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected with again twodissenters voting for a hike. There were no surprises butGovernor Ueda focusing on spring wage negotiations suggested that the next hikecould be delayed to January or even March 2026. The probabilities for aDecember hike stand around 25%. We continue to get verbalinterventions from the Japanese Finance Minister around the 155.00 handle, butthe market got used to it, so it will take some stronger action to reverse themomentum. USDJPYTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY is trading above the 155.00 handle. The buyers will likelycontinue to pile in for new highs as long as the price stays above the 155.00level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling backbelow the key level to position for a drop into the 151.00 support.USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get apullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with adefined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, onthe other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets intothe 151.00 support.USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here although we can expect the sellers to increase the bearishmomentum on a break below the 154.80 level. On the other hand, a break abovethe recent high at 155.38 should see the buyers increasing the bullish betsinto the 156.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UpcomingCatalystsToday we get the weekly ADP jobs data. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC meetingminutes. On Thursday, we get the September NFP report and maybe the US JoblessClaims data. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI report andthe US Flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.