US 100 Index – NVIDIA Earnings and September Payrolls To Keep TrUS Tech 100 IndexPEPPERSTONE:NAS100PepperstoneNovember has been a choppy and volatile period for the US 100 index. After opening the month with a push to a high of 26154 on November 1st concerns about lofty valuations of AI companies, more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve speakers and a US government shutdown have all combined to weaken prices which has seen the index twice dip and recover from support at 24608 (more on this in technical update below). Now looking forward, sentiment towards technology stocks is going to face potentially its toughest test so far with the release of AI bellwether NVIDIA’s earnings after the close on Wednesday, which is closely followed by the delayed September US Non-farm Payrolls report on Thursday. Expectations for NVIDIA’s results are high, with Reuters reporting analysts on average expecting the company to post a 54% year-on-year rise in Q3 earnings per share, with optimism for future revenue being driven higher by recent chip supply deals the company has announced with a string of companies such as Samsung. NVIDIA carries a huge 10% weighing in the US 100 index so these results could have a big impact on the direction of prices into the weekend, perhaps even further. The reopening of the US federal government last Thursday has restarted the release of key economic data updates on the labour market and inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed the September Non-farm payrolls report, originally due in early October, will now be released on Thursday November 20th at 1330 GMT. This update could be important for traders as they try and work out whether the US labour market has weakened enough for Federal Reserve policymakers to be swayed to cut interest rates by 25bps (0.25%) again at their final meeting of the year on December 10th. Recent commentary from Fed speakers has been more hawkish than expected by markets only a month ago, so there may be an extra level of US 100 price sensitivity to the outcome of this release on Thursday. US 100 Index Technical Update: 24608 Support Holds Again Last week’s US 100 activity began with price strength on Monday, but this quickly reversed, seeing a retreat of nearly 5% into Friday’s low at (24542, November 14th). Importantly, that decline tested support at 24608, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August to October advance. This level holding last week maintains potential for prices to stabilise to begin the new week. Interestingly, a similar rally emerged the previous Friday (November 7th) following tests of the same 24608 retracement support, reinforcing the possibility that buyers are currently still active around this area. While not a guarantee of future price strength, with this level now limiting selling pressure on 2 occasions, this may be viewed as the first important support level for traders to focus on this week. Potential Support Levels: With 24608 established as a potential support, closing breaks below this level might be needed to suggest renewed downside pressure, leading to a further phase of price weakness. A close below 24608 if seen, could then turn the focus toward 24221, which is the deeper 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with the possibility for extension of price declines to 24004, which is the October 10th session low, increasing if this 24221 support level were to give way. Potential Resistance Levels: If 24608 continues to hold selling pressure, fresh attempts at price strength might result. However, it could prove to be the still rising Bollinger mid‑average at 25490 that marks an initial resistance level, with a close above this level needed to suggest risks for the possibility of fresh upside momentum. If the 25490 mid‑average does give way to the upside on a closing basis, renewed price strength could be the result. Such moves may then open scope for tests of 25742, the November 12th session high, and possibly toward 26277, the October 30th all‑time high. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. 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