BTC/USD — Bitcoin Loses Almost All Yearly Gains as Downtrend DeeBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDJohn_IsigeBTC/USD fell to 93,750 (Murray –1/8) last week, wiping out nearly all gains accumulated this year. The decline was driven by two major factors: 1. Fed pause risk grows — dollar strengthens The probability of a December rate cut has dropped to 49%, according to CME FedWatch. Even previously dovish members — such as Boston Fed’s Susan Collins — now support a pause to assess the impact of earlier cuts. A stronger USD continues to pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin. 2. Profit-taking from large investors After the post-election crypto rally driven by the crypto-friendly Trump administration, major holders began locking in profits. Fear & Greed Index: •14 (“Extreme Fear”) now •10 over the weekend ETF outflows: •–$1.636B from Bitcoin ETFs over the last 3 sessions → confirming sustained selling pressure. ⸻ Technical Picture BTC/USD is attempting to break below the descending channel, moving under its lower boundary. A confirmed breakdown below 93,750 (Murray –1/8) would accelerate the bearish trend. On the weekly timeframe, price has fallen below the 50-week MA, which previously acted as major dynamic support — increasing the probability of deeper declines. Indicators •Bollinger Bands: pointing downward → trend pressure remains bearish •MACD: expanding in the negative zone •Stochastic: exiting oversold, allowing a short-term bounce — but limited upside Overall, momentum remains strongly bearish. ⸻ Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance •100,000 •106,250 •112,500 Support •93,750 •87,500 •81,250 ⸻ Trading Scenarios (Weekly) Base Scenario — SELL STOP Entry: 93,400 TP1: 87,500 TP2: 81,250 Stop-loss: 98,200 Bias: bearish continuation Horizon: 5–7 days ⸻ Alternative Scenario — BUY STOP Entry: 100,500 TP1: 106,250 TP2: 112,500 Stop-loss: 95,200 Bias: bullish reversal only above 100,000 ⸻ TradingView-Style Summary Bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend after losing dynamic weekly support and breaking near-critical levels. A move below 93,750 opens the way toward 87,500 → 81,250, while only a breakout above 100,000 would signal the first signs of recovery.