SUPPORT ETHIOPIA INSIGHT .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } How Ethiopia’s leaders weaponize population math to justify mass violence.A troubling political calculus is resurfacing in the Horn of Africa, one that uses distorted demography to justify, first, mass death, and now, threats of war.The recent declaration by Ethiopia’s military chief, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, that the “fate of 200 million” Ethiopians cannot be decided by “2 million” Eritreans over Red Sea access is more than mere saber-rattling.It reflects the continued use of a strategy previously deployed with genocidal consequences in Tigray: the weaponization of population numbers.This “inflation-deflation calculus”—inflating one’s own numbers to claim an existential crisis while minimizing those of an adversary to undercut their sovereignty—remains a deeply harmful political tool. We have seen this playbook before.A landmark legal report from the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy concludes there is a “reasonable basis to believe” the violence in Tigray amounts to genocide. The path to that catastrophe was paved with the same numerical dehumanization now being directed at Eritrea.Act One: Numerical JustificationThe war on Tigray was preceded by a persistent campaign of verbal and numerical dehumanization. The region’s population, approximately 5.7 million, was systematically framed as a “cancer” and “weeds” that needed excision. As scholar Teklehaymanot Weldemichel argues, this rhetoric was an epistemic tactic to normalize violence.But the dehumanization was also arithmetic. The narrative of a small, troublesome minority of “5 million” obstructing the unity of a “100 million-strong” Ethiopia created a pseudo-mathematical rationale for atrocity.By deflating Tigrayans’ numbers, the state stripped them of political weight and humanity. This rhetoric was then reinforced through “contextual invisibility,” a communication blackout, and a siege that turned Tigray into what one analyst called a “death-world.”In this environment, severe atrocities followed. The New Lines Institute report documents a starvation campaign that killed hundreds of thousands, mass killings, and the destruction of the healthcare system.Most disturbingly, sexual violence was weaponized with genocidal intent. In a 2024 study, Ethiopian researchers Alemu and Berhe recorded perpetrators telling victims, “Your womb is our enemy” and “We will destroy your womb so you can’t give birth to a Tigrayan.”This was not an isolated atrocity; it was “genocidal rape,” designed to impact the reproductive health of the population in ways consistent with the legal definition of genocide.Act Two: Red Sea GambitToday, the same approach is reappearing, with only the figures altered. Ethiopian war rhetoric toward Eritrea relies on a similar manipulation of data.Strategic Inflation: The Field Marshal’s claim uses Ethiopia’s legitimate long-term projection—reaching 200 million by 2050—to create a sense of immediate crisis. This is not a good-faith demographic observation; it is a strategic inflation of immediacy. By framing a 25-year horizon as a pressing, immediate imperative, the rhetoric creates a “demographic necessity” for expansionist policies today.Rhetorical Deflation: Simultaneously, Eritrea’s population is reduced to a “mere 2 million,” erasing nearly half of its actual population of almost 4 million. This rhetorical deflation diminishes the sovereignty and future of a nation projected to reach 5.7 million by 2050. The goal is to portray a country of millions as an insignificant obstacle whose rights can be overridden by the inflated “needs” of its neighbor.The core argument mirrors that used against Tigrayans: the needs of our (inflated) many negate the rights of your (deflated) few. It is a logic that sidelines international law and the humanity of the target population.Crucially, this is not naive innumeracy. It is a deliberate strategy. Djibouti’s offer of full port access to Ethiopia amid Somali-Ethiopian tension demonstrates that peaceful, diplomatic solutions exist.The threat to take Assab by force is therefore not about logistics; it is about domination, justified by a demographic narrative shaped to mislead.Finale: Breaking the CalculatorThe path from the rhetoric that enabled genocide in Tigray to the threats echoing over the Red Sea is clear and continuous. It is a path marked by the declaration that “Your womb is our enemy” and the claim that millions of people are a negligible statistic.As the New Lines Institute report stresses, the international community must find “the means to stay the course” and not pivot away from justice.This requires recognizing the “inflation-deflation calculus” for what it is: a dangerous strategy that has already fueled one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.Allowing this demographic manipulation to stand unchallenged sets a troubling precedent: that in the Horn of Africa, might—supported by distorted numbers—makes right.A more constructive future for the region must rest on accurate data, cooperation, and the principle that a people’s right to exist is not determined by population size. .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Query or correction? Email us window.addEventListener("sfsi_functions_loaded", function(){if (typeof sfsi_widget_set == "function") {sfsi_widget_set();}}); While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.Main photo: Ethiopian National Defense Forces soldiers marching in formation, November 2025. Source: ENDF Facebook page.Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.The post From Tigray’s Cleansing to the Red Sea: The Tyranny of False Numbers appeared first on Ethiopia Insight.