Fundamental Market Analysis for January 15, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004Event to pay attention to today: 15.01 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims USDJPY: USD/JPY is hovering around 158.3–158.6, with the yen still under pressure due to political uncertainty and expectations of expanded fiscal stimulus in Japan. This adds to concerns about the debt burden and encourages investors to move away from the yen. On the US side, the dollar is supported by relatively strong data and the view that the Fed is unlikely to ease policy aggressively in the coming weeks. At the same time, as the pair approaches the 159–160 area, the “authorities factor” becomes more important: Japan’s Ministry of Finance regularly signals readiness to respond to “excessive” FX moves, so the market has to price in intervention risk. In addition, the Bank of Japan has begun raising rates, and any signs of further normalization increase the chances of a stronger yen. The base case for today is a corrective decline in USD/JPY: even firm warnings from officials or a deterioration in global risk appetite can temporarily boost demand for the yen. The main risk is fresh drivers of JPY weakness—political statements, rising US yields, or strong US data. Trading recommendation: SELL 158.500, SL 159.100, TP 156.700