Indices: Futures Pull Back on Tariff Escalation Undoing Last Week’s Gains for Large Caps- US equity index futures gap lower following President Trump’s threat of new tariffs on multiple European countries linked to Greenland negotiations; follows a week where the S&P 500 (w/w -0.1% to 6,940), Nasdaq 100 (w/w -0.3% to 25,529), and Dow 30 (w/w -0.3% to 49,359) all posted modest weekly losses with tech leading the declines, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (w/w +2.4% to 2,677) continued to outperform; Treasury yields rose last Friday as Hasset less likely to replace Fed Chair Powell, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) remains near fully pricing in a hold out of the Fed later this month, and via majority holding until June- President Trump announces new tariffs on eight European countries (Germany, France, UK, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands and Finland), 10% starting February 1 and could reach 25% by June 1 if no agreement is reached regarding “the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”Stocks: Novo Nordisk and Micron Outperform for Two Very Different Reasons- Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (-0.5%) finished slightly lower but were up 1.6% for the week; Jeffries reiterated a buy rating and raised its price target to $275; semiconductor peers AMD (+1.7%) and Broadcom (+2.5%) fared well but it was Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) (+7.8%) outperforming within the sphere as securities filing reveals board member purchased its stock- Shares of Honeywell closed 2.1% higher enjoying an upgrade out of JPMorgan to overweight- Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) climbs 6.5% as oral weight loss treatment enjoys a strong start- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-5.3%), Kohl’s (-3.3%), GoPro (-2.1%), Krispy Kreme (-1.8%), Opendoor (+5.9%), AMC (+1.3%), BlackBerry (-1%), Nokia (-2%), GameStop (-1.2%)- Crypto stocks tracked cryptocurrencies higher by Friday’s close but are expected to suffer a red session when the market reopens tomorrow if the pullback within the sphere persists: Coinbase (+0.8%), MicroStrategy (+1.6%), Mara Holdings (+6.6%), Gemini Space Station (+4.6%), Bullish (+3.5%)- Earnings:o PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC): Fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations, with guidance pointing to roughly 11% total revenue growth by the end of 2026; shares closed 3.8% higherCommodities: Greenland Gives Gold and Silver a Boost to a Record High- Gold gaps higher and intraday wasn’t far off $4.7K as Greenland firmly in focus, a record high for silver as well breaching $93 again and taking the gold/silver ratio back down to 50- Oil prices (WTI) trade around $59 as markets weigh ongoing geopolitical supply risks against ample global inventories and rising U.S. production; Baker Hughes data shows the U.S. oil rig count at 410 rising by one and above 407 forecasts; natural gas futures jump off the lows on change in weather outlook expected to raise heating demandFX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Bitcoin falls back about 3% this morning alongside the drop in risk appetite, breaking beneath its previous mid-term resistance level that failed to act as support and into the $92K handle, with Ether down 4% reaching the lower end of its short-term bull channel- US Dollar Index gained on Friday as odds dropped on Hassett being made Fed Chair but is in retreat this morning following tariff threats regarding Greenland, with the haven franc outperforming taking USD/CHF below 0.8- Federal Reserve’s Jefferson signals a pause on rate changes, citing a “cautiously optimistic” outlook and neutral policy stance, and Bowman highlights labour market risks and the need to remain ready to cut rates if necessary; National Economic Council Director Hassett likely to remain in current role and not replace Fed Chairman Powell according to President TrumpCapital.com Client Sentiment (w/w):- Indices: Long bias climbs where a pullback in price occurred, including for the S&P (76% a couple notches shy of extreme by from 71% a week ago), Nasdaq (reaching heavy buy territory, at 70% from 57% last Monday) while holds in the Russell (at 60%) as the small-cap index outperformed last week; elsewhere shifts back to majority buy in the DAX (55% from a majority short 55%) while trim their long sentiment in both FTSE (to just 54%) and ASX (to 84% from 88%) as they both ended the week in the green- Commodities: Heavy buy and rising w/w in gold (to 74% from 68% a week ago), back in extreme buy territory for both silver (81% from 77% last Monday) and WTI (81% from 76%)- FX: Majority buy and rising in EUR/USD (62% from 59% at the start of last week) and AUD/USD (a notch higher to 61%), shifts in GBP/JPY (to a majority long 60% from a majority short 58%) and on the verge of doing so in USD/JPY (slight sell 51%)CoT Speculator Sentiment (w/w):- Indices: Raise their net sell bias a notch in the S&P (to 60%), trim their net long bias in the Nasdaq (to 59% from 61%) and more so the Dow (from 58% to just 51%), and shifts in the Russell from a slight sell 51% to a slight buy 54%)- Commodities: Extreme buy and rising in gold (to 87% from 85%), not far off getting there in silver (76% from 72%) while reducing their extreme long sentiment in WTI (by a couple notches to 87%)- FX: Reduce their heavy buy bias in EUR (to 65% from 69%), little changed in GBP (net short 58%), and shifts in JPY (from a majority buy 52% to a majority short 58%; i.e., majority long 58% USD/JPY)Data: Mixed Out of the U.S., Mixed Out of China- U.S. Industrial Production for December rises 0.4% m/m, beating forecasts; NAHB’s housing market index worsens to 37 remaining in negative outlook territory- Chinese GDP y/y falls from 4.8% to 4.5% for Q4 its weakest increase in three years, industrial production in December y/y reaches 5.2% from 4.8%, retail sales for the same month disappoints up only 0.9%, unemployment rate holds at 5.1%, new home prices m/m -0.37% and y/y -2.7%, fixed asset investment -3.8% ytdToday:- U.S. holiday- EZ final CPI (2 pm Dubai time), Canadian CPI (5:30 pm)This Week: PCE, Earnings, and the Bank of Japan- U.S. final GDP and PCE on Thursday, and preliminary PMIs on Fridayo Earning results from Netflix, 3M and some regional banks tomorrow, J&J and Travelers on Wednesday, Visa, P&G and Intel on Thursday, and more regional banks on Fridayo Supreme Court may announce opinions tomorrow, once more market participants hope to get clarity regarding tariff legality; and on Wednesday to consider whether Trump can remove FOMC member Cook- Out of Europe, UK labour data tomorrow followed by German ZEW, UK pricing data on Wednesday, ECB’s minutes on Thursday, and preliminary PMIs on Friday- Bank of Japan on Friday expected to hold on rates, China’s PBoC expected to do the same for its LPRs tomorrow- WEF in Davos at a time when geopolitical tensions are worsening