ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setup for Tue (Jan 20)E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!MyAlgoIndexU.S. cash markets paused on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but trading on the Globex platform displayed pronounced volatility amid soaring U.S.-EU trade tensions focused on Greenland. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) saw a decline of approximately 1.1% from Friday's close, while the Nasdaq-100 (NQ) lagged further, dropping 1.4%. In a shift towards safe-haven assets, gold prices surged to an all-time high of $4,660, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and strong performance from the Swiss franc. The catalyst behind the market's movement was President Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on eight European NATO allies specifically Denmark, the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Finland set to take effect on February 1. This tariff is scheduled to escalate to 25% by June 1 unless an agreement regarding Greenland is reached. In response, the EU has activated an emergency protocol and is deliberating potential countermeasures. Treasury Secretary Bessent, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, expressed optimism about the U.S. economy, stating, “We expect investment to accelerate this year.” FORECAST BIAS: Neutral-to-Bearish (Short-Term) OVERNIGHT THOUGHTS: The Asia and Europe trading sessions are anticipated to test recent overnight lows, with potential for unsuccessful dip-buying efforts at resistance levels. TUESDAY NY SESSION OUTLOOK: As U.S. traders return to the markets, they will react to the weekend’s accumulated news. An initial attempt at short-covering is expected, likely followed by renewed selling pressure. Failed rallies in the 6920-6935 range may further exacerbate the downward trend. BULLISH SCENARIO (30% likelihood): A retraction back to 6923 that holds could lead to a gap fill toward the 6950-6960 area. BEARISH SCENARIO (50% likelihood): A failed rebound at resistance may signal a continuation down to the 6870-6850 discount zone. CHOPPING SCENARIO (20% likelihood): The market may remain range-bound between 6887-6920 while awaiting clearer catalysts. INVALIDATION POINT: A sustained break above 6950 would shift the bias towards bullish. HIGH-IMPACT SCHEDULED ITEMS (ET) 09:30 - US cash equities reopen after MLK Day closure (gap-and-go risk; repricing of Greenland tariff headlines that built up while cash was shut) 10:00 - Supreme Court session begins. Oral arguments scheduled: Wolford v. Lopez (2A), M&K Employee Solutions v. Trustees (pension). Opinions possible but not guaranteed - the tariff case (Learning Resources v. Trump) ruling could drop any session. Court did not pre-commit which decisions will be released. Last courtroom session until Feb 20. 11:30 - Treasury bill auctions (supply event; can jolt front-end yields and spill into ES via rates): 6-week bill auction (announced Thu prior) 4-week/8-week bills settle Tuesday per standard pattern 52-week bill auction possible (every 4 weeks on Tues) 16:01 - Netflix (NFLX) Q4 earnings release - HIGH IMPACT 16:15 - Fed H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (pushed from holiday) 16:45 - Netflix earnings interview begins After the close (earnings beta into index futures): Netflix (NFLX) - major index weight, sentiment driver United Airlines (UAL) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) US Bancorp (USB) Fifth Third (FITB) KeyCorp (KEY) Before the open (also relevant if you trade the open): 3M (MMM) DR Horton (DHI) Fastenal (FAST) WHAT IS NOT ON THE CALENDAR (STILL IMPORTANT) No top-tier BEA macro prints (GDP/PCE/Income) scheduled for Tue Jan 20 per BEA release schedule No major BLS releases scheduled for Tue Jan 20 per BLS January schedule No FOMC meeting - next meeting is Jan 27-28 Fed note: Daily/weekly statistical releases scheduled on the holiday (Mon) are pushed to Tuesday - H.10 at 4:15 PM, H.8 on Thu. Can nudge rates/liquidity expectations. Trump v. Cook (Fed's Cook firing case) oral arguments are Wednesday Jan 21 - could create Fed-related headline risk heading into that session WATCH LIST (UNSCHEDULED BUT HIGH PROBABILITY) EU tariff retaliation announcement - emergency meeting concluded, response expected Trump/Bessent comments from Davos Any SCOTUS tariff ruling leak or rel Good Luck !!!