MICHAEL D. SHEAR2026年1月20日特朗普总统去年8月在白宫与欧洲领导人会晤。周六，特朗普表示除非欧洲国家允许他收购格陵兰岛，否则将对多个欧洲国家提高关税。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesWhat happens to an 80-year-old diplomatic alliance when its leading power threatens a military invasion of one member, wages economic war on the others and vows to cultivate political and cultural resistance to their governments?在一个延续80年的外交同盟中，当主导国威胁军事入侵其中一员、对其他成员国发动经济战，还扬言培植反对这些国家政府的政治与文化势力，这个联盟会面临怎样的命运？Is the alliance doomed?这个外交同盟注定会走向覆灭吗？That question is being asked in capitals across Europe as leaders rush to respond to President Trump’s rapidly escalating campaign to acquire Greenland over the objections of the people who live there. At issue most urgently is whether resisting Mr. Trump’s territorial ambitions risks damaging Europe’s relationship with the United States beyond repair.特朗普总统不顾当地居民反对吞并格陵兰岛的行动正迅速升级，在欧洲领导人紧急应对之际，这个问题正在欧洲各国首都引发热议。当下最迫切的争议是，反抗特朗普的领土野心是否会让欧美关系遭受无法挽回的重创。Some leaders — like President Emmanuel Macron of France and Lars Klingbeil, Germany’s finance minister — appear willing to take that risk, urging Europe’s nations to consider deploying an economic “bazooka” in response to Mr. Trump’s latest tariff threats.部分欧洲领导人似乎愿意承担这一风险，法国总统马克龙和德国财政部长拉尔斯·克林贝尔便是其中代表，他们呼吁欧洲各国考虑祭出经济“火箭筒”，回击特朗普最新的关税威胁。Leaders from across Europe are expected to gather in Brussels this week to present a united response to Mr. Trump’s provocations. Veteran observers of European politics said the alliance between Europe and the United States that formed in the aftermath of World War II had already been fundamentally altered.欧洲各国领导人预计会在本周齐聚布鲁塞尔，针对特朗普的一系列挑衅给出统一回应。欧洲政治资深观察人士表示，二战后建立的这一欧美同盟已发生根本性改变。It is no longer an alliance designed primarily to advance the interests of like-minded democracies, they said. Instead, it is a relationship on Mr. Trump’s terms alone — one in which he wields the leverage that comes from American power to force Europeans to cater to his whims.他们称，这个以推动理念相通的民主国家的共同利益为初衷的组织如今已经面目全非，彻底沦为由特朗普单方面主导的关系——他利用美国实力的杠杆，逼迫欧洲各国迁就其各种心血来潮的意愿。“To use what is essentially economic warfare with allies is unprecedented in this way,” said Ian Lesser, who leads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund, a research group.“以这种方式对盟友发动实质上的经济战，在历史上是前所未有的，”研究机构德国马歇尔基金会布鲁塞尔办公室负责人伊恩·莱塞表示。There appears to be a consensus in much of Europe that it needs to build new economic and military capacities to make it less dependent on the United States. But that will take years, if not decades. In the meantime, Europe’s businesses and financial markets will still be intertwined with the buying power of consumers in the United States, and Ukraine will still need American weapons to defend itself against Russia.欧洲多数国家已形成共识：必须打造新的经济和军事能力，降低对美国的依赖。但这一目标即便不用数十年，也需要数年时间才能实现。在此期间，欧洲的企业和金融市场仍与美国消费者的购买力深度交织，乌克兰也依旧需要美国的武器，才能抵御俄罗斯的进攻。In fact, months of diplomatic effort to negotiate a cease-fire in the Ukraine war have only underscored that NATO, which was formed to defend Europe, is unable to fend off Russian aggression without security guarantees by the United States.事实上，数月来为推动乌克兰战争停火展开的外交努力，恰恰凸显了一个事实：若没有美国的安全保障，为捍卫欧洲而成立的北约无力抵挡俄罗斯的军事行动。”It would be foolish at a time of war in Europe to jettison all of the sort of strategic and operational benefits that come with the alliance,” Mr. Lesser said. “But if the United States is no longer a reliable partner in that alliance, then Europe needs to do something else.”“在欧洲深陷战事的当下，抛弃同盟带来的各类战略与作战优势是极为愚蠢的做法，”莱塞说。“但如果美国在同盟中不再是可靠的伙伴，那么欧洲就必须另寻出路。”That effort is already underway, slowly.这一努力已然开启，然而进程十分缓慢。The same day that Mr. Trump announced his latest tariff threat on social media, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, and António Costa, the president of the European Council, were in Paraguay to sign a major trade deal with a bloc of Latin American countries, one that was 25 years in the making.就在特朗普在社交媒体上宣布最新关税威胁的同一天，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔正在巴拉圭，与一个拉美国家联盟签署了一项酝酿了25年的重大贸易协定。Mr. Trump has so far been happy to welcome European money to purchase American-made arms for Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe. And he relishes surprising his so-called allies, as he demonstrated on Saturday when he announced tariffs on a group of European nations, including Britain, unless Greenland is sold to the United States.迄今为止，特朗普乐见欧洲出资为乌克兰及其他东欧国家采购美国武器。同时，他也热衷于出其不意地对待这些所谓盟友——上周六他便做出了这样的举动，宣布将对包括英国在内的欧洲国家加征关税，除非这些国家同意将格陵兰岛卖给美国。That raises the stakes for the decisions that Europe is grappling with in the days ahead. It must choose how aggressively to confront Mr. Trump without knowing what the always-unpredictable president will do.这让欧洲未来数日的决策变得更为棘手。欧洲必须决定以何种强硬程度对抗特朗普，却又无法预判这位向来反复无常的总统下一步会采取何种行动。“Is he serious? What does Europe do now? How does the U.S. respond?” Mr. Lesser said. “There will be those who say, ‘OK, how do we get through this?’ Is it possible to simply to engage in a kind of negotiation or investment or whatever it may be, that will defer anything radical?”“他是认真的吗？欧洲现在该怎么办？美国又会作何回应？”莱塞接连发问。“一定会有人说，‘那我们该如何度过这场危机？’能否单纯通过谈判、投资或其他某种方式，暂缓激进举措的出台？”Mr. Trump has already made it clear that he views America’s European allies with disdain.特朗普早已明确表达自己对美国的欧洲盟友的不屑。In his annual National Security Strategy, released last month, officials from Mr. Trump’s administration questioned whether some European countries would remain “reliable allies” in the future.在上月发布的年度《国家安全战略》报告中，特朗普政府官员对部分欧洲国家未来能否继续成为美国“可靠的盟友”提出了质疑。The document conceded that Europe was “strategically and culturally vital” to the United States. But it said the continent faced the “stark prospect of civilizational erasure” unless the United States helped like-minded “patriotic European parties” — a phrase that was widely understood to mean the far right — to win power.这份报告虽承认欧洲对美国而言“具有至关重要的战略和文化意义”，但称除非美国出手扶持理念相通的“欧洲爱国政党”——该表述普遍被理解为极右翼势力——赢得政权，否则欧洲大陆将面临“文明消亡的严峻前景”。For Europeans on the receiving end of those assertions, the president’s threats about acquiring Greenland “the easy way” or “the hard way” have further eroded the trust that was central to their alliance with the United States for decades.对于听到这番言论的欧洲人而言，特朗普扬言要么以“和平方式”、要么以“强硬手段”夺取格陵兰岛的威胁进一步侵蚀了数十年来欧美同盟的核心基石——信任。“Going back to the level of trust that we saw beforehand would require, I think, generational change,” said Rosa Balfour, the director of Carnegie Europe, a political think tank. “The attack on Europe is not just coming from an individual, you know — it’s been turned into an ideology.”“我认为，要想恢复往日的互信水平，恐怕需要经历一代人的更迭，”政治智库卡内基欧洲中心主任罗莎·巴尔弗表示。“要知道，对欧洲的攻击并非来自某一个人——而是已然演变成了一种意识形态。”上月，乌克兰防空部队士兵。近期停火谈判凸显出，没有美国的支持，欧洲无法抵御俄罗斯的侵略。Since the latest Greenland threats, more voices have begun urging assertive action.自特朗普做出关于格陵兰岛的最新威胁后，欧洲国内呼吁采取强硬反制行动的声音越来越多。In a statement over the weekend, Mr. Macron vowed that “no intimidation or threat will influence us — neither in Ukraine, nor in Greenland, nor anywhere else in the world.”马克龙在周末发表的声明中誓言：“无论是在乌克兰、格陵兰岛，还是世界其他任何地方，任何恐吓与威胁都无法影响我们。”He called Mr. Trump’s tariff threats “unacceptable” and vowed: “Europeans will respond in a united and coordinated manner should they be confirmed. We will ensure that European sovereignty is upheld.”他称特朗普的关税威胁“不可接受”，并承诺：“一旦这些威胁落地，欧洲将以团结、协调的方式予以回应。我们将确保欧洲主权得到维护。”Others, like Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, have argued for a diplomatic solution and cautioned against grandstanding. “That’s an understandable instinct, but it’s not effective,” the prime minister told reporters on Monday morning. “It never has been. It may make politicians feel good, but it does nothing for working people whose jobs, livelihoods and security rely on the relationships that we build across the world.”而英国首相斯塔默等领导人则主张通过外交途径解决问题，并告诫各方切勿哗众取宠。“这种想法可以理解，但并无实际效果，”斯塔默周一上午对记者表示。“这种做法从未奏效，它或许能让政治人士自我感觉良好，但对那些依靠全球关系维系工作、生计和安全的人民毫无裨益。”Still, Ms. Balfour said that more leaders were beginning to realize that capitulating to Mr. Trump’s demands was not always in Europe’s interests. In fact, it often leads Mr. Trump to demand more concessions.尽管如此，巴尔弗表示，越来越多的欧洲领导人开始意识到，屈从于特朗普的要求并非总能符合欧洲的利益，事实上，这种做法往往会让特朗普提出更多让步要求。If true, that could have implications for the alliance with the United States and whether it survives in the future.倘若事实果真如此，这将对欧美的同盟关系和存续产生深远影响。“Reality, I think, is sinking into the mind-sets of those people who have been advocating caution, dialogue and ‘Let’s listen to what Trump has to say,’” Ms. Balfour said. “You can feel that kind of change.”“我能感受到，那些一直主张保持谨慎、开展对话、‘听听特朗普的诉求’的人，心态正逐渐回归现实，”巴尔弗说，“这种转变是切实存在的。”Jeanna Smialek自布鲁塞尔对本文有报道贡献。Michael D. Shear是《纽约时报》资深记者，报道英国政治、文化，以及全球各地外交议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。