储百亮, AGNES CHANG, AMY CHANG CHIEN2026年1月20日1月11日的船只编队。注：船只位置为当地时间1月11日下午2时的最后已知位置。 China quietly mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice in recent weeks to form massive floating barriers of at least 200 miles long, showing a new level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas.中国在最近几周内两次悄然调动数千艘渔船，组成至少320公里长的巨型漂浮屏障，显示出一种前所未有的协同水平，这可能为北京在争议海域施加控制提供更多手段。The two recent operations unfolded largely unnoticed. An analysis of ship-tracking data by The New York Times reveals the scale and complexity of the maneuvers for the first time.这两次行动在实施过程中几乎未引起注意。《纽约时报》通过对船舶追踪数据的分析首次揭示了这些行动的规模与复杂程度。Last week, about 1,400 Chinese vessels abruptly dropped their usual fishing activities or sailed out of their home ports and congregated in the East China Sea. By Jan. 11, they had assembled into a rectangle stretching more than 200 miles. The formation was so dense that some approaching cargo ships appeared to skirt around them or had to zigzag through, ship-tracking data showed.上周，大约1400艘中国船只在东海集结，这些渔船有的突然停止了日常捕鱼活动，有的从母港驶出。到1月11日，它们已排成一个延伸超过320公里的矩形阵列。船舶追踪数据显示，该阵列密度极高，以至于一些驶近的货船不得不绕行或在其间曲折穿行通过。Maritime and military experts said the maneuvers suggested that China was strengthening its maritime militia, which is made up of civilian fishing boats trained to join in military operations. They said the maneuvers show that Beijing can rapidly muster large numbers of the boats in disputed seas.海事和军事专家表示，这些行动表明中国正在加强其海上民兵力量。海上民兵由接受过军事行动训练的民用渔船组成。专家们称，这些演习表明北京能够在争议海域迅速集结大量此类船只。The Jan. 11 maneuver followed a similar operation last month, when about 2,000 Chinese fishing boats assembled in two long, parallel formations on Christmas Day in the East China Sea. Each stretched 290 miles long, about the distance from New York City to Buffalo, forming a reverse L shape, ship-position data indicates. The two gatherings, weeks apart in the same waters, suggested a coordinated effort, analysts said.1月11日的行动与上个月的一次行动类似：在圣诞节当天，约2000艘中国渔船在东海排成两列长长的平行队形。船舶位置数据显示，每列队形长达467公里，大致相当于纽约市到布法罗的距离，两条队形构成了一个倒“L”形。分析人士称，几周内在同一海域发生的两次集结表明这是一次协调一致的行动。12月25日的船只编队。注：船只位置为当地时间12月25日晚上10时的最后已知位置。The unusual formations were spotted by Jason Wang, the chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a company that analyzes data, and were independently confirmed by The Times using ship-location data provided by Starboard Maritime Intelligence.这些不寻常的队列最早由数据分析公司ingeniSPACE的首席运营官杰森·王发现，《纽约时报》利用Starboard Maritime Intelligence提供的船舶定位数据进行了独立核实。“I was thinking to myself, ‘This is not right’,” he said, describing his response when he spotted the fishing boats on Christmas Day. “I mean I’ve seen like a couple hundred — let’s say high hundreds,” he said, referring to Chinese boats he has previously tracked, “but nothing of this scale or of this distinctive formation.”“我当时心里想，‘这不对劲’，”他在回忆起自己在圣诞节发现这些渔船时的反应时说。“我的意思是，我以前见过几百艘——应该说是大几百吧，”他提到此前追踪过的中国船只，“但从来没有见过这种规模，也从未见过如此独特的编队。”In a conflict or crisis, for instance over Taiwan, China could mobilize tens of thousands of civilian ships, including fishing boats, to clog sea lanes and complicate military and supply operations of its opponents.在冲突或危机中（例如在台湾问题上），中国可能会动员包括渔船在内的数以万计的民用船只来堵塞航道，使对手的军事和补给行动变得复杂。Chinese fishing boats would be too small to effectively enforce a blockade. But they could possibly obstruct movement by American warships, said Lonnie Henley, a former U.S. intelligence officer who has studied China’s maritime militia.这些中国渔船的体量太小，难以有效执行封锁。但它们可能会阻碍美国军舰的行动，曾研究中国海上民兵的美国前情报官员朗尼·亨利说。The masses of the smaller boats could also act “as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming radars or drone sensors with too many targets,” said Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. naval officer now at the Center for a New American Security.大量的小型船只还可能“充当导弹和鱼雷的诱饵，用大量目标来淹没雷达或无人机传感器”，前美国海军军官、现就职于新美国安全中心的托马斯·舒加特表示。Satellite imagery from Jan. 10, the day before the formation, shows fishing vessels sailing toward the area.1月10日，也就是这些船只编队形成的前一天，卫星图像显示大量渔船正驶向该海域。注：图片拍摄于当地时间1月10日上午11时左右。部分船只可能并非中国渔船。Analysts tracking the ships were struck by the scale of the maneuvers, even given China’s record of mobilizing civilian boats, which has involved anchoring boats for weeks on contested reefs, for instance, to project Beijing’s claims in territorial disputes.即便考虑到中国此前也曾动员民用船只（例如在争议岛礁上让船只锚泊数周，以彰显北京在领土争端中的主张），这次行动的规模仍令追踪船只的分析人士感到震惊。“The sight of that many vessels operating in concert is staggering,” said Mark Douglas, an analyst at Starboard, a company with offices in New Zealand and the United States. Mr. Douglas said that he and his colleagues had “never seen a formation of this size and discipline before.”“这么多船只协同作战的景象令人震惊，”Starboard公司的分析师马克·道格拉斯说。该公司在新西兰和美国设有办公室。他表示，他和同事们“从未见过如此规模、如此纪律严明的编队”。“The level of coordination to get that many vessels into a formation like this is significant,” he said.“要让这么多船只进入这样的队形，其协调程度是相当高的，”他说。The assembled boats held relatively steady positions, rather than sailing in patterns typical of fishing, such as paths that loop or go back and forth, analysts said. The ship-location data draws on navigation signals broadcast by the vessels.分析人士称，这些集结的船只保持着相对稳定的位置，而不是像正常捕鱼那样航行，例如走回环路线或来回穿梭。船舶定位数据来自这些船只广播的导航信号。注：船舶航线是根据当地时间2026年1月10日晚上10时开始的30小时内的位置数据估算得出的。The operations appeared to mark a bold step in China’s efforts to train fishing boats to gather en masse, in order to impede or monitor other countries’ ships, or to help Beijing assert its territorial claims by establishing a perimeter, said Mr. Wang of ingeniSPACE.ingeniSPACE的杰森·王表示，这些行动似乎标志着中国在训练渔船大规模集结方面迈出了大胆一步，目的是阻碍或监控他国船只，或通过建立周边屏障来帮助北京维护其领土主张。“They’re scaling up, and that scaling indicates their ability to do better command and control of civilian ships,” he said.“他们正在扩大规模，而这种规模的扩大表明他们对民用船只的指挥和控制能力正在提升，”他说。The Chinese government has not said anything publicly about the fishing boats’ activities. The ship-signals data appeared to be reliable and not “spoofed” — that is, manipulated to create false impressions of the boats’ locations — Mr. Wang and Mr. Douglas both said.中国政府尚未公开就这些渔船的活动发表任何声明。杰森·王和道格拉斯都表示，船舶信号数据似乎可靠，并非“伪造”——也就是说，没有被篡改以制造渔船位置的虚假印象。Researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, when approached by The Times with these findings, confirmed that they had observed the same packs of boats with their own ship-location analysis.《纽约时报》就这些发现联系了位于华盛顿的战略与国际问题研究中心，该中心的研究人员证实，他们通过自己的船舶定位分析也观察到了同样的船队。“They are almost certainly not fishing, and I can’t think of any explanation that isn’t state-directed,” Gregory Poling, the director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at C.S.I.S., wrote in emailed comments.“它们几乎肯定不是在捕鱼，而且我想不出任何非国家主导的解释，”战略与国际问题研究中心亚洲海事透明倡议主任格雷戈里·波林在电邮中写道。The fishing boats assembled in the East China Sea, near major shipping lanes that branch out from Shanghai, among the world’s busiest ports. Cargo ships crisscross the sea daily, including ones carrying Chinese exports to the United States.这些渔船集结在东海，靠近从上海分流出的主要航运通道。上海是世界上最繁忙的港口之一，货船每天在这片海域交叉穿梭，其中包括运载中国出口商品前往美国的船只。These are maritime arteries that China would seek to control in a clash with the United States or its Asian allies, including in a possible crisis over Taiwan, the island-democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.在与美国或其亚洲盟友发生冲突时，包括在可能发生的台湾危机中，这里都将是中国试图控制的海上动脉。台湾是一个岛屿民主政体，北京宣称对其拥有主权。“My best guess is this was an exercise to see how the civilians would do if told to muster at scale in a future contingency, perhaps in support of quarantine, blockade, or other pressure tactics against Taiwan,” Mr. Poling wrote. A “quarantine” means a sea operation to seal off an area that is meant to fall short of an act of war.“我认为最有可能的是，这是一次演练，目的是看看在未来的突发情况下，例如为对台湾实施隔离、封锁，或其他施压手段提供支持时，如果要求这些平民船只大规模集结，他们的表现会怎么样，”波林写道。“隔离”指的是旨在封锁某一区域，但意在避免构成战争行为的海上行动。The boat maneuvers in January took place shortly after Beijing held two days of military exercises around Taiwan, including practicing naval maneuvers to blockade the island. Beijing is also in a bitter dispute with Japan over its support for Taiwan.1月的渔船行动发生在北京举行了为期两天的环台军事演习后不久，演习内容包括模拟封锁台湾的海上行动。北京还因日本支持台湾而与其陷入激烈争端。The fishing boat operations could have been held to signal “opposition to Japan” or practice for possible confrontations with Japan or Taiwan, said Andrew S. Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College who studies China’s maritime activities. He noted that he spoke for himself, not for his college or the navy.研究中国海上活动的美国海军战争学院教授安德鲁·S·埃里克森表示，这些渔船行动可能是为了表明“反对日本”的立场，或为可能与日本或台湾发生的对峙进行演练。他指出，他的观点仅代表个人，并不代表其所在学院或海军。Japan’s Ministry of Defense and coast guard both declined to comment on the Chinese fishing boats, citing the need to protect their information-gathering capabilities.日本防卫省和海上保安厅均拒绝就这些中国渔船发表评论，理由是需要保护其情报收集能力。Some of the fishing boats had taken part in previous maritime militia activities or belonged to fishing fleets known to be involved in militia activities, based on a scan of Chinese state media reports. China does not publish the names of most vessels in its maritime militia, making it difficult to identify the status of the boats involved.根据对中国官方媒体报道的梳理，其中一些渔船曾参与过此前的海上民兵活动，或隶属于已知参与民兵活动的渔船队。中国不公布其海上民兵组织大多数船只的名称，这使得识别相关船只的身份变得困难。But the tight coordination of the boats showed it was probably “an at-sea mobilization and exercise of maritime militia forces,” Professor Erickson said.但这些船只的高度协调性表明，这很可能是“一次在海上进行的海上民兵力量动员与演练”，埃里克森说。2023年，悬挂中国国旗的船只停泊在南海争议水域。China has in recent years used maritime militia fishing boats in dozens or even hundreds to support its navy, sometimes by swarming, maneuvering dangerously close, and physically bumping other boats in disputes with other countries.近年来，中国曾动用数十艘乃至数百艘海上民兵渔船来支援其海军，在与他国发生争端时，渔船有时会蜂拥而上、危险靠近、甚至与对方船只发生物理碰撞。The recent massing of boats appeared to show that maritime militia units are becoming more organized and better equipped with navigation and communications technology.最近这次大规模集结似乎表明，海上民兵部队的组织性越来越强，导航和通信技术的装备也越来越好。“It does mark an improvement in their ability to marshal and control a large number of militia vessels,” said Mr. Henley, the former U.S. intelligence officer, who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. “That’s one of the main challenges to making the maritime militia a useful tool for either combat support or sovereignty protection.”“这确实标志着他们在集结和控制大量民兵船只方面的能力有所提升，”前美国情报官员、现任费城外交政策研究所非常驻高级研究员亨利说。“这正是让海上民兵成为一种对作战支援或主权保护有用的工具所面临的主要挑战之一。”Choe Sang-Hun自首尔、赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)和Kiuko Notoya自东京对本文有报道贡献。数据来源：Starboard Maritime Intelligence关于数据：我们以24小时为单位，分析了在2025年12月25日和2026年1月11日广播位置信息位于集结附近的船舶的自动识别系统（AIS）数据。这些船舶要么遵循中国渔船命名规则，要么注册为中国籍渔船。船舶并非一直发送信息，也可能发送错误信息。地图上显示的位置是在当时最后的已知位置。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。