US Dollar (DXY): Institutional Traders Remain BearishU.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYSwissquoteAmong the so-called major currencies in the floating foreign exchange market (Forex), the US dollar (DXY) was the weakest major currency in 2025. This was also the case during the first year of President Trump’s first term in 2017; however, the second year (2018) saw a strong bullish recovery in the US dollar. Will 2026 be a bullish year for the US dollar? Beyond a prospective “déjà vu” scenario similar to 2018 (2026 is indeed the second year of Trump’s second term), it is essential to focus on facts and raw market data. At this stage, what can be observed is that the US dollar has been trading in a range on the FX market since last summer, and this January 2026 still shows no clear medium-term bullish reversal signals. •The underlying trend of the US dollar (DXY) remains bearish below the 101/102 resistance zone •EUR/USD remains bullish (bearish US dollar) as long as the 1.1495 support level holds in the short term •And most importantly, institutional traders remain bearish on the US dollar according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC. Institutional positioning remains the cornerstone of the US dollar’s underlying trend on the FX market The chart below shows the performance evolution of major FX currencies throughout 2025. This bearish institutional bias is all the more significant because it has persisted over time. For several months, asset managers and non-commercial traders have maintained a net short exposure to the greenback, reflecting a sustained macroeconomic conviction rather than a simple short-term tactical adjustment. Historically, when this type of positioning becomes entrenched, dollar rebounds tend to be limited and are more often viewed as selling opportunities rather than genuine trend reversals. The histogram below shows the continued rise (yellow line on the chart) of net institutional positioning on the EUR/USD pair. As long as net positioning on EUR/USD remains positive and bullish, this implies that institutional traders are net sellers of the US dollar (DXY). From a macroeconomic perspective, several factors continue to weigh on the US dollar. The gradual slowdown in US economic growth, combined with expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve over the medium term, reduces the appeal of the greenback as a yield currency. By contrast, some other major central banks, particularly in the euro area, are adopting a more cautious stance, which helps support currencies competing with the dollar. From a technical standpoint, the repeated inability of the DXY to break sustainably above the 101/102 zone reinforces the idea of a structural ceiling. As long as this resistance is not reclaimed on a weekly closing basis, the preferred scenario remains one of sideways consolidation with a bearish bias. The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. In conclusion, despite speculation about a potential parallel with 2018, the market does not currently validate the hypothesis of a bullish reversal in the US dollar. As long as institutional positioning data, technical structure, and the macroeconomic backdrop remain unchanged, the US dollar is likely to stay under pressure in the foreign exchange market. 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