EURUSD H1 Forecast: Bearish Channel HoldsEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDHenrybillionEURUSD H1 Forecast: Bearish Channel Holds, Sell-the-Rally Toward 1.1700–1.1745 Supply EURUSD on the 1H chart is still trading inside a well-defined bearish structure, with price respecting descending channels and repeatedly printing BOS/CHOCH signals that confirm lower-high behavior. The latest move shows a corrective bounce from the lows, but the rally is running into stacked resistance zones overhead. Unless EURUSD reclaims the channel and holds above key supply, the higher-probability plan remains selling pullbacks into resistance rather than buying the bounce. This setup combines trendline/channel, Fibonacci retracement, EMA, RSI, and clear support/resistance mapping. Market Structure (H1): Lower Highs, Liquidity Above The broader intraday bias remains bearish: price has been stepping down through multiple descending channels. The right side of the chart highlights several sell zones above current price (marked by horizontal levels and red arrows), suggesting supply is layered. The recent bounce looks like a corrective leg that can be used to position with the trend if price reacts at resistance. Current price is around 1.16529, sitting below the nearest pullback resistance cluster. Key Resistance Levels (Sell Zones) These are the levels that matter most for today’s intraday decisions: 1.1668 – 1.1680: first pullback resistance (nearest sell-the-rally area) 1.1700: mid resistance and common liquidity level 1.1740 – 1.1745: major supply / “strong high” zone (premium sell area) If price trades into these levels and fails to hold above, it reinforces bearish continuation. Key Support Levels (Downside Targets) 1.1630 – 1.1620: near-term support band 1.1600: next downside objective if 1.1620 breaks Weak Low zone near 1.1600–1.1580: liquidity magnet if sellers regain full control Fibonacci: Pullback Zones to Time Entries A practical fib for execution is the most recent swing down (from the last pullback high into the latest low). In a bearish environment, the best sell entries typically show up in: Fib 38.2%: first rejection zone (often aligns with 1.1668–1.1680) Fib 50%: balanced pullback area (often aligns near 1.1695–1.1705) Fib 61.8%: premium sell zone (often aligns near 1.1735–1.1745) That fib ladder matches the chart’s stacked resistance logic: sell higher if the market offers deeper pullback. EMA Confirmation (Trend Filter) Even though EMA lines are not displayed, here is the clean filter to keep trades aligned with momentum: Bearish condition: EMA20 below EMA50, both sloping down Best sells: pullback into EMA20/EMA50 zone + rejection candle Warning sign: sustained H1 closes above EMA50, then EMA20 crossing above EMA50 (trend shift risk) RSI Confirmation (Momentum Filter) In bearish trends, RSI often fails to hold above 50. Strong sell confirmations: RSI rejection around 45–55 bearish divergence when price tags 1.1680 or 1.1700 but RSI does not confirm If RSI starts holding above 50 during pullbacks, reduce short bias and wait for structure confirmation. Trading Scenarios (Intraday Plan) Scenario A: Sell the Rally at 1.1668–1.1680 (Higher Probability) Entry zone: 1.1668 – 1.1680 Trigger: H1 rejection (wick + bearish close), failure to break/hold above the local channel line Stop loss: above 1.1700 (tighter) or above the swing high that forms at the zone Take profit: TP1: 1.1630 – 1.1620 TP2: 1.1600 TP3: 1.1580 (if momentum expands) This is the “first pullback” sell. If price doesn’t reject here and keeps grinding up, wait for higher zones. Scenario B: Sell at 1.1700 (Mid Pullback) Entry: sell rejection around 1.1700 Stop loss: above 1.1720 Targets: 1.1620 → 1.1600 This works best when the market shows a clean wick rejection at the round-number level. Scenario C: Premium Sell at 1.1740–1.1745 (Best R:R If Reached) Entry zone: 1.1740 – 1.1745 Stop loss: above 1.1765 Targets: 1.1700 → 1.1620 → 1.1600 This is the most attractive zone on the chart if price sweeps liquidity into the “strong high” area and fails. Scenario D: Bullish Shift Only If Structure Flips (Lower Probability) Only consider longs if EURUSD: breaks out of the bearish channel and holds above 1.1700 on retest, with RSI above 50 and EMA structure turning up Without that, treat upside moves as pullbacks inside a bearish framework. Invalidation Level Bearish bias weakens if price accepts and holds above: 1.1745 on H1 closes, followed by a successful retest That would suggest supply is absorbed and the market is transitioning. Summary Levels to Save Resistance: 1.1668–1.1680, 1.1700, 1.1740–1.1745 Support: 1.1630–1.1620, 1.1600, 1.1580 Best idea: sell-the-rally into fib + channel resistance, not chase the bounce If you want the next update, save this plan and track how price reacts at 1.1680 and 1.1700 first. Those reactions usually decide whether EURUSD drops back to 1.1620 or offers a deeper pullback into 1.1745 supply.