Technical Analysis: BTC/USD (30m Timeframe) I 01-15Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDLake_Tradedragon1. Value Area Context (VAH, POC, VAL) Using the three purple zones as your primary framework: VAH (Value Area High - approx. 97,600): Price recently attempted to break above this level but failed, resulting in a "rejection." This indicates that the market currently perceives prices above this zone as "expensive," leading to a move back into the value range. POC (Point of Control - approx. 95,400): This is the high-volume node where the most trading activity occurred. Since the price failed to hold above VAH, the POC acts as a powerful "magnet," likely drawing the price down to test this fair value level. VAL (Value Area Low - approx. 92,200): This represents the bottom of the value range. If the POC fails to hold, this is the next major structural support where buyers are expected to step in. 2. Current Price Action & Trendline Trendline Support: The price is currently sitting exactly on the blue ascending trendline. This is the "line in the sand" for the immediate bullish momentum. Daily Open (96,946): The price is currently trading below the Daily Open. This is a bearish intraday signal, suggesting that sellers are in control of the current session. The "Mean Reversion" Play: Because the price has fallen back inside the Value Area from the top (VAH), technical theory suggests it is headed toward the POC (95,400). 3. Market Scenarios Bearish Scenario (Targeting POC): If the 30-minute candle closes decisively below the blue trendline and the 96,000 level, the probability of a slide toward the POC at 95,400 increases significantly. Bullish Scenario (Defending VAH): To regain bullish momentum, the price needs to bounce off this trendline immediately and reclaim the Daily Open (96,946). Only a sustained move back above VAH (97,600) would invalidate the current correction. Summary & Strategy Current Bias: Lean Bearish/Neutral until the trendline is either confirmed as support or broken. Key Level to Watch: 95,400 (POC). This is the most logical place to look for a "long" entry if the price continues to drop, as it represents the highest liquidity point. Risk Management: If you are in a long position, a stop loss below the trendline or the 95,200 mark is critical, as a break here could lead to a fast move toward the POC.