GOLD/SILVER VS BTC: Is the Rotation Approaching?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSwissquoteWill Bitcoin manage to initiate a genuine rebound during the first quarter of 2026, while the market continues to question the nature of the current move: a simple mid-cycle correction or a true entry into a cyclical bear market? The debate remains open, but several signals deserve close attention. In financial markets, performance is primarily a matter of rotation between major asset classes. BTC is no exception to this rule and is evolving within a powerful relative cycle against precious metals, particularly gold and silver. The past year illustrates this phenomenon perfectly: precious metals significantly outperformed, with silver surging by more than 150% and gold by over 60%, while Bitcoin ended the year in negative territory. All three assets now benefit from a substantial supply of spot ETFs in the United States, a key factor that facilitates rapid arbitrage and creates a genuine communicating-vessels effect. In this context, it appears difficult to envision a sustained recovery in Bitcoin as long as gold and silver maintain a near-vertical bullish momentum in commodity markets. At this stage of the cycle, gold and silver even dominate the global market capitalization rankings, ahead of major U.S. technology stocks, while Bitcoin has been relegated to a significantly smaller size, now displaying a market capitalization roughly half that of silver. It is precisely the technical study of the BITCOIN/GOLD and BITCOIN/SILVER ratios that allows BTC’s position within this relative cycle to be assessed. History shows that each major trough observed in these two ratios has coincided with the end of a cyclical bearish phase for Bitcoin. Today, these ratios are evolving in extreme oversold territory, a configuration that argues in favor of a future rotation in favor of BTC. However, a market can remain oversold far longer than expected before producing genuine reversal signals. This therefore requires close monitoring of these levels, as the rotation dynamic is approaching, though not yet confirmed. From a macro-financial perspective, this analysis fits into an environment marked by monetary degradation, structural government indebtedness, and persistent geopolitical tensions. In this context, gold and silver fully play their role as safe havens, while Bitcoin—perceived as riskier and more volatile—has historically tended to take over at a later stage, once the initial phase of stress has been absorbed by the markets. From a technical standpoint, the ratio charts reveal an advanced compression of BTC’s bearish trends relative to precious metals, with long-term support zones reached or currently being tested. This type of configuration has often preceded phases of catch-up performance by Bitcoin, first in relative terms against gold and silver, before any broader recovery. It should also be emphasized that BTC cycles are built more on phenomena of relative capitulation than on absolute collapses. In other words, Bitcoin does not require a sharp reversal in precious metals to rebound, but merely a loss of momentum in their bullish impulse, sufficient to redirect flows toward assets with higher potential. Ultimately, as long as the BTC/XAU and BTC/XAG ratios have not validated a clear bullish reversal, any attempt at a Bitcoin recovery will remain fragile and exposed to high volatility. Conversely, a phase of stabilization followed by a reversal of these ratios would constitute a first-order signal, suggesting that the cyclical rotation is underway and that BTC could enter a new phase of outperformance in the months ahead. 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