ESWAR PRASAD2026年1月15日 Qilai Shen/Panos Pictures, via ReduxChina’s trade surplus — the amount by which its exports exceed its imports — hit a staggering $1.19 trillion in 2025, according to official numbers released on Wednesday. The figure shows just how much China is an exporting powerhouse but is also a sign of its economic weakness and of how its practices pose a greater danger to free trade than even President Trump’s tariffs.据中国周三发布的官方数据显示，2025年中国贸易顺差（即出口额超出进口额的部分）达到惊人的1.19万亿美元。这一数字既彰显出中国作为出口大国的强劲实力，也折射出其经济存在的脆弱性，同时还表明，中国的贸易行为对自由贸易构成的危险甚至超过了特朗普总统的关税政策。The tariffs undoubtedly took a hammer to free trade. With the United States retreating from its leadership role, China has tried to assume the mantle of being the promoter of globalization and the defender of the multilateral rules-based system that underpins global trade (which, incidentally, the United States played a major role in setting up).特朗普的关税无疑严重冲击了自由贸易。在美国逐渐放弃其全球领导角色的背景下，中国试图扛起推动全球化、捍卫支撑全球贸易的多边规则体系的大旗——而这套体系正是美国主导建立的。China’s economic model has certainly delivered growth but in an unbalanced way. Investment in buildings, machinery and equipment became its main driver in recent years. That investment is, of course, good in that it raises productive potential. But with real estate investment declining because of falling housing prices, a lot of this investment has been undertaken by state-owned enterprises and is neither efficient nor profitable.中国的经济发展模式的确实现了经济增长，但这种增长是失衡的。近年来，建筑、机械和设备领域的投资成为拉动经济的主要引擎。此类投资固然能提升产能潜力，具有积极意义。但随着房价下跌导致房地产投资萎缩，大量投资活动转而由国有企业主导，既缺乏效率，也难以产生利润。Still, all of this investment has meant the production of lots of goods. That sounds like a blessing but has instead spawned a problem. Domestic consumption has not kept pace with rising output because Chinese households are reluctant to spend freely. Facing uncertain employment prospects and the plunging value of their real estate, they have been stashing a lot of their earnings in savings. And household confidence seems to have taken a hit from concerns about the government’s economic management skills, further crimping demand.即便如此，大规模的投资仍催生了海量商品产出。这本该是一件好事，却滋生出一个难题：由于中国家庭不愿随意消费，国内消费增速始终跟不上产出扩张的步伐。面对不稳定的就业前景和持续缩水的房产价值，许多家庭选择将大部分收入存入银行。而公众对政府经济管理能力的担忧进一步打击了居民消费信心，抑制了市场需求。When an economy produces more than it consumes, something has to give. One possibility is that prices fall, which tends to encourage consumers to buy more. But when households anticipate continually dropping prices, they might postpone consumption rather than increase it. China has been facing such deflationary pressures.当一个经济体的产出大于消费时，必然会出现相应的调整。一种可能是物价下跌，这通常会刺激消费者增加购买。但如果家庭预期物价持续走低，反而会推迟消费，而非扩大支出。中国目前正面临这样的通缩压力。The only option left is to send surplus goods abroad. This is exactly what China has been doing, with its exports growing by leaps and bounds. The United States is the exception. Mr. Trump’s high tariffs on Chinese goods have resulted in exports to the United States falling sharply. This has meant that China has been increasing exports to its other trading partners, counting ever more on them to absorb its surplus output and keep its own growth on track.如此一来，唯一的出路便是将过剩商品销往海外——这也正是中国当下的做法，其出口规模正实现跨越式增长。但美国是个例外：特朗普政府对中国商品加征高额关税，导致中国对美出口额大幅下滑。这迫使中国不得不加大对其他贸易伙伴的出口力度，越来越依赖这些国家来消化本国的过剩产能，从而维持自身的经济增长势头。Surely recipient countries should be grateful for inexpensive Chinese goods landing on their shores. The reality is that, unlike the U.S. economy, which has been powering along with relatively robust gross domestic product and employment growth, most other rich economies — such as the European Union’s, Japan’s and Britain’s — are in dire straits. Chinese exports are swamping their manufacturers, which are unable to compete. Even low- and middle-income countries have a difficult time countering Chinese exporters, strangling some of their companies.按理说，其他国家本应对物美价廉的中国商品涌入本国市场心存感激。但实际情况是，与美国经济凭借稳健的国内生产总值增速和就业增长保持强劲发展态势不同，欧盟、日本、英国等多数发达经济体正陷入困境。中国的出口商品正冲击着这些国家的本土制造业，使其难以与之竞争。甚至中低收入国家也难以抗衡中国出口商的优势，不少本土企业因此陷入困境。This situation is unsustainable, and countries on the receiving end are fighting back. President Emmanuel Macron of France recently raised the trade issue with his hosts in Beijing. The European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, warned that Europe risked becoming a dumping ground for Chinese goods. Mexico has raised tariffs on imports from China, and other countries are likely to follow suit.这种局面难以持续，相关国家正纷纷采取反制措施。法国总统马克龙近期访华时便提出了贸易问题。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩警告称，欧洲有沦为中国商品倾销地的风险。墨西哥已上调对中国进口商品的关税，其他国家很可能会效仿。Beijing has countered with pleas for keeping trade free and open. But China cannot claim to be a fervent supporter of the global trading system when it is using those rules to its advantage and to the detriment of everyone else. For the second-largest economy in the world to rely on other countries to prop up its growth will only accelerate the breakdown of the rules-based system. In combination with Mr. Trump’s tariffs, the onslaught of Chinese exports will wreck what remains.对此，中方则呼吁各方维护贸易的自由与开放。然而，若中国一味利用现有规则为自身牟利、损害他国利益，就无权宣称自己是全球贸易体系的坚定支持者。作为世界第二大经济体，中国依靠其他国家来支撑自身增长的做法只会加速多边规则体系的瓦解。在特朗普的关税政策影响叠加之下，中国出口潮的持续冲击终将摧毁这一体系的残存部分。This is not to say that world trade will collapse. The benefits from trade and cross-border supply chains are so large that they will continue to grow. But trade is fragmenting in ways that reduce the benefits, especially if countries begin emphasizing trade with their geopolitical allies and try to shut out rivals. The fragmentation will leave poorer economies, which are only now integrating into global trade, worse off.这并非意味着全球贸易会就此崩溃。贸易和跨境供应链带来的巨大效益仍会推动其持续发展。但全球贸易正呈现碎片化趋势，这会削弱贸易带来的红利——尤其是在各国开始侧重与地缘政治盟友开展贸易、试图排挤竞争对手的情况下。这种碎片化将令那些刚刚融入全球贸易体系的贫困经济体雪上加霜。What could China do? It could get serious about fixing its growth imbalance and make changes, such as strengthening its social safety net, that would encourage its citizens to spend. The government has acknowledged this is a priority but shows no urgency to act, given that growth has stayed around its 5 percent target. Now that growth is at risk of weakening, the government might yet again resort to its old playbook of credit-financed investment to stimulate the economy, which would worsen the problem.那么，可以采取哪些应对措施？中国可以认真解决增长失衡问题，通过完善社会安全网等改革措施刺激居民消费。中国政府虽已承认这是工作重点，但鉴于经济增速始终维持在5%目标区间，行动仍显迟缓。如今，经济增长面临放缓风险，政府或许会再次祭出信贷驱动型投资的老办法来刺激经济，而这只会让问题雪上加霜。China’s central bank could allow the Chinese currency to appreciate, something it has been resisting recently. A stronger currency would make Chinese exports more expensive and imports less costly and thus would help tamp down the trade surplus. Its currency would gain prominence in global finance, something Beijing has long desired, if its value was seen as determined by the market instead of the central bank.中国央行也可以选择允许人民币升值——这正是其近期一直抵制的做法。人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格，同时降低进口商品成本，进而有助于缩小贸易顺差。此外，若人民币汇率能够由市场决定而非由央行管控，其在全球金融领域的地位也将随之提升，这正是中国长期以来追求的目标。Doing what’s best for the long run would allow China to help the world economy. If not, China would not only damage global growth but also cede any claim to a leadership role in the evolving new world order.采取有利于长远发展的举措，中国才能为全球经济复苏贡献力量。反之，中国不仅会损害全球经济增长，更将难以推行新兴世界秩序中争取领导地位的任何主张。Eswar Prasad是康奈尔大学戴森学院的教授，也是布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。