Why BTC Won't Crash to $50k (The 138.2% Rule)Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDTheOnePctI want to share my full-view analysis of BTC today. Usually, I try to simplify my charts or translate them into standard Elliott Wave terms, but I feel like we might be at a 'moment of truth' here, so I’m going to stick to pure NeoWave and Ichimoku for this one, This idea tries to connect most of my previous ideas It’s likely going to be a long read, and honestly, if you aren't interested in wave theory, this might not be for you. But for those who want to see what the deeper structure could be suggesting, let’s take a look. The Big Picture: Supercycles First, let's zoom all the way out. Based on the structure, it looks like Bitcoin has likely completed two major "Supercycles." •Supercycle 1: Started way back in Nov 2011 and topped out around April 12, 2021. •Supercycle 2: This was the corrective phase that followed which ended in November 2022 From my perspective, Supercycle 2 was a bit tricky. It actually failed the Time Similarity rule (it was too fast, lasting less than 1/3 of the time of the first wave). However, it passed on Price Similarity comfortably. The retracement was around 78%, which is well above the minimum needed. Because the price ratio is strong, I view this wave as acceptable despite the short duration. The confirmation is seen November 2022. That’s when we broke the 2-4 trendline, which officially signaled that the Supercycle 1 correction (an Expanded Flat) was finished. So, what does this mean for today? It suggests the rally we've seen since late 2022 is likely the start of Supercycle 3—specifically, we are looking at internal waves 1 and 2 of this new giant cycle. Before we jump into the current setup, we need to quickly look at the popular Elliott Wave count that most people are following. I want to briefly explain why I think it might be flawed. We'll keep this part fast and short, just to clear the way for the actual analysis. Let’s briefly test the common scenario most people are charting right now. The common view marks the move from Nov 2022 to Mar 2024 as a massive Extended Wave 1, followed later by Wave 3. But when we look closer, the market physics tell a different story. •Wave 1: Climbed roughly $58k, but it took a long 69 candles to do it. •Wave 3: Climbed around $56k, but did it in just 25 candles. Do you see the contradiction? Wave 3 covered almost the same ground but was nearly 3x more powerful in terms of speed and intensity. If Wave 1 was truly the "extended" leader, it shouldn't be outperformed so drastically by Wave 3. The "Litmus Test" for a wave to be considered extended, it typically needs to dwarf the others—usually by at least 161.8%. Here, Wave 1 and Wave 3 are essentially the same size. When your motive waves are equal like this, it strongly suggests we aren't looking at a standard impulse pattern. The math simply doesn't support it. Does that massive "Wave 1" actually subdivide into a clean 5-wave impulse? I checked the daily chart, and it fails the Degree Test. •Wave 2: Lasted 23 candles. •Wave 4: Lasted 153 candles. Wave 4 took nearly 7x longer to correct the same amount of price. You cannot connect two waves with such a massive time imbalance and call them partners. The "impulse" theory simply breaks down when you zoom in. Sticking to My Previous Analysis I’m not trying to reinvent the wheel here. This is the exact same count I proposed in my previous analysis, and I haven't seen anything yet that changes my mind. While the popular view has its merits, I’m sticking with this count simply because it passes the strict internal structure tests without having to force the rules. •Wave 1: Nov 21, 2022 → Apr 10, 2023 •Wave 2: Apr 10, 2023 → Sep 11, 2023 •Wave 3: Sep 11, 2023 → Mar 11, 2024 •Wave 4: Mar 11, 2024 → Sep 02, 2024 •Wave 5: Sep 02, 2024 → Jan 20, 2025 •Major Correction: Jan 20, 2025 → Ongoing (Flat correction) Unlike the other scenario, this count passes the Internal Structure Test. The waves are balanced, and the subdivisions are clean. Why Jan 20, 2025 Was the Top ,The confirmation here is the 2-4 Trendline. We broke this line decisively around March 2025, once that line breaks, it confirms the entire 5-wave pattern is finished. This proves the subsequent rally to $126k wasn't a new impulse—it was just a corrective B-Wave in a flat pattern, also I reviewed the rally to 126k on 1D chart, from my view it’s a corrective pattern and not an impulse. Ichimoku Evidence If you doubt the wave theory, look at the Ichimoku Base Line (Kijun-sen) on the weekly chart. It tells the real story of that rally to $126k. From April to October 2025, the Base Line went completely flat. •The Stat: It remained horizontal for 22 out of 27 weeks (81% of the time). •The Reason: The calculation was "anchored" to the A-wave low ($74,434). What This Means: In Ichimoku, a flat Kijun means the market is stuck in a range or equilibrium. Even though the price was rallying up to $126k, the math showed that the median equilibrium wasn't rising—it was pinned to the lows. My view, that’s Flat behavior (specially B-wave). In a real trend, the equilibrium lifts with the price. Here, the price went up, but the structure stayed flat. Combined with the fact that the upward speed (Velocity) was much slower than the drop in Wave A, this a major red flag, this was a corrective rally, not a new bull run. This is where we have to look at the physics of the move. •The Drop (Wave A): Fast, sharp, and velocity higher. •The Rally (Wave B): Slower, grinding, and taking more time with a slower velocity. Why This is a Major Red Flag In market theory, the "real" trend is usually the direction with the most speed. Impulse waves (the true trend) tend to move fast because everyone is rushing to the same side. Corrections (the counter-trend) tend to be slower and choppier because they are fighting the dominant flow. While it is not a "god-given rule" that B-waves must be slower, when you see a rally that is significantly more lethargic than the drop that preceded it, it is a massive warning sign. It tells you that despite the green candles, the sellers are still stronger than the buyers. The "true" direction is likely still down. The Million Dollar Question: How Deep? Everyone seems worried that we are going to crash back down to $50k or $55k. But if we stick to the rules, I don't think that's happening. I admitted before that was possible. But I need to make a correction. What changed my mind? TIME. This drop moved too fast. Deep crashes usually drag out with a heavy feeling. This felt rushed. That intuition forced me to re-check. The "138.2%" Rule The difference between a crash and a shallow bottom is the strength of the rally (Wave B). •If Wave B is massive (> 138.2% of A), the pattern upgrades to an "Irregular Failure flat" The Result: Our rally smashed that limit. This means the market is technically too strong to break the old lows. So, the $74,434 floor should hold. I am dropping the $50k target for now. Instead, I’m looking for a shallow bottom right here between $79k – $76.2k. The Psychology of the pattern: "Irregular Failure flat" sounds like a bad thing, but in reality, it is a sign of extreme strength. Think of it like a Black Friday sale for a wildly popular product. You are standing in line waiting for the price to drop 50% so you can buy in cheap. But the demand is so crazy that people start buying the moment the price drops just 5%. The crowd is so "hungry" that they don't let the price hit the clearance rack. They step in early. That is exactly what a "Running Flat in elliott terms" is. It’s not just a chart pattern; it’s a map of impatience. It tells us the buyers are so aggressive that they aren't willing to wait for the deep discount everyone else is expecting. A Final Word of Caution However, let’s be real: These are not God's rules. Markets are living things. Patterns break and structures shift all the time. If a major black swan event happens tomorrow—like a global conflict—and we smash through that $74k floor, the analysis changes. The whole rally from 2022 might turn into a complex correction (like a W-X-Y), and that is okay. As traders, we don't predict the future with 100% certainty; we manage risk based on the structure we have right now. And right now, the structure says the bottom is close. Summary & The Game Plan So, to wrap this all up, here is what we are watching: •The Target: We are waiting for C-5 for a bottom between $79k – $76.2k (Also there is a scenerio that C-5 might get truncated) •The Invalidations: The absolute floor is $74,434 (Wave A low). If we break that or even wick near it, this specific "irregular failure flat" theory is dead, and we are likely dealing with a much larger, messier structure. Where are we now? We are currently forming a Running Triangle (Wave C-4). This typically signals the end is near—just one last leg down to go. It looks like it's going to finish soon, unless it develops into something darker. What Comes Next? The signal I am waiting for is a break of the 2-4 trendline (That’s when C-4 is confirmed finshed). That might be the finish line. Once we smash through that line, it might confirm downtrend is over, But remember the break must be impulsive. It needs to be fast, strong, and convincing. I will update you guys as soon as that breakout happens. If it doesn't... well, pretend you never saw this and just forget I exist. A Note on Volatility (The BBWP Warning) I also want to address the massive Weekly BBWP contractions I’ve flagged in most of my previous ideas. I am sticking with the Supercycle theory. To me, this BBWP contractions is simply the "calm before the storm" right before Supercycle 3 kicks off. I fully agree with this outlook. it's coiling up for the next major move. Also Technically, extreme contractions can signal a dangerous, higher-degree triangle or diagonal. That is the "darker" possibility, but I don't want to overcomplicate things today—that is a story for another time and I am not even considering it at the moment.