Markets Back on Track After Earnings Beats and Solid Economic Data

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) earnings had high expectations and beat them easily, reinvigorating the AI narrative. The shares are up 6%, +14% YTD. Semiconductors are up 3.4% today, +11.5% YTD. NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 2.8% and back in the green (+1%) YTD. The Magnificent 7 is up 0.5%, led by NVIDIA, with only Alphabet (GOOGL) slightly in the red, though it remains down 1% YTD.The broad market rally may have more to do with some material backpedaling by Trump, who clarified he would not be firing Jerome Powell over the cost overruns of the Fed HQ remodeling, and that he was not planning an attack on Iran at this time (though he did announce new sanctions). This has resulted in a 4.1% drop in crude oil and a rise in interest rates.Also impacting today’s rebound were reduced labor concerns as jobless claims came in below forecasts. In addition, manufacturing data came in very strong. The economy appears to be in good shape.The US 2-year yield has jumped 4 bps to 3.55%, the highest in a month, as expectations for a Fed cut before Powell’s scheduled departure continue to fade. The 10-year is up 2 bps to 4.16%. The US dollar index has climbed back above 99 on the higher short yields. On the commodity front, crude oil is back below $60/bbl, and natural gas and gasoline are softer. Precious metals are seeing some profit taking with gold down 0.5%, silver and copper down 1.5%. Crypto’s recent runup has slowed on news that the pending regulatory relief has been postponed, with Bitcoin back to $96.5K after almost hitting $98K before the news.On the earnings front, besides TSM, we got beats top and bottom from Morgan Stanley (MS) and the shares are up 5.2%, now up 55.5% LTM to a new all-time high. Goldman Sachs (GS) had a miss on the top and a beat on the bottom. The shares are up 3.9%, +73.6% LTM, also an all-time high. BlackRock (BLK) had major beats top and bottom and now has $14 trillion in assets. The shares are up 5%, +21.3% LTM. The earnings season has been revived with these strong results.After a bumpy start, the trend is heading back in the right direction, and January is off to a good start.