After suffering thousands of casualties, many Iranians likely resent Arab governments that are perceived as working to block U.S. action against regime targets.By Dalga Khatinoglu, Middle East ForumAmid growing speculation about a possible U.S. military strike on Iranian targets—triggered by the horrific killing of thousands of protesters by Iran’s security forces—American news media report that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman are lobbying Washington to prevent military action against Iran.Oman’s foreign minister visited Tehran on January 10, 2026, at the height of the protests, just two days after reports said Iranian security forces may have killed more than 12,000 demonstrators.Three days after the meeting between the Iranian and Omani foreign ministers, President Donald Trump addressed the Iranian people, saying that “help is on the way” and urging them to continue their protests.On January 14, Trump announced that he had received information from “reliable sources” that the killings in Iran had stopped and that executions of those arrested by the regime would not take place.At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking to Fox News, claimed that the Islamic Republic “has no plan to execute those arrested for taking part in the protests.”Nevertheless, the evacuation of some U.S. military bases in the region, including Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, along with calls by many governments for their citizens to leave Iran immediately, suggests that the U.S. military option against the Islamic Republic remains on the table.It is not clear when, or at what level, the United States might strike Iranian targets. But U.S. media report that Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are arguing that such a move would “plunge the region into chaos.”The Islamic Republic is now in its most fragile position ever. A serious U.S. strike, especially one that is not limited to symbolic targets, could reinvigorate and sustain the protest movement, giving Iranians new hope for freedom—and for the fall of the regime.It is impossible to predict whether such a scenario would lead to the regime’s collapse, the establishment of a transitional government, or a civil war, or whether the ruling clerics could somehow preserve the Islamic Republic without popular legitimacy. Nor is it clear how long such instability could last.The top priority for the Arab Gulf states, without a doubt, is the uninterrupted export of their oil without Iranian interference or attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. But oil-market dynamics are also working against them.Data from Kpler and Vortexa show that in recent months, Iran has accumulated about 166 million barrels of floating storage near Chinese waters.Even if Iran’s oil loadings were disrupted, this stockpile could sustain sales to China for three to four months.By contrast, any attack on tankers in the Persian Gulf would be extremely damaging for Arab producers, especially because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, even with alternative pipelines, can protect only about half of their export volumes, while Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have no alternative export routes.A second concern is that, according to the International Energy Agency, the world is expected to have 3.84 million barrels per day of surplus oil supply this year, with oil prices around $55 per barrel—a level that would push every major oil producer in the region into budget deficits.If the Iranian regime falls and U.S. sanctions are suspended, not only would Iranian exports rise, but Iran’s massive floating storage would also flood the market, pushing oil prices down sharply for a prolonged period.Iran currently delivers about 1.2 million barrels per day to its only client, China, but early last year, this figure had reached 1.8 million barrels per day. Before U.S. oil sanctions were imposed in 2018, Iran exported 2.5 million barrels per day.There is also a broader Arab interest in maintaining a weak, sanctioned Iranian regime. After the mass killings of protesters, the United States announced an additional 25 percent tariff on goods exported to the U.S. by Iran’s trading partners—a move that benefits the Arab Gulf states.Iran trades with more than 140 countries, making it impossible to penalize all of them, but Iran earns as much from exports of fuel oil, liquified petroleum gas, natural gas, and petrochemicals as it does from crude oil exports to China.These products are sold mainly to China, the Emirates, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.It is important to remember that Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest exporter of refined petroleum and petrochemical products, Qatar is the region’s largest gas exporter, and Oman is also a major exporter of petroleum, liquified petroleum gas, petrochemicals, and natural gas.These countries can easily replace Iran in key markets. As a result, U.S. economic and sanctions pressure on Iran works overwhelmingly in favor of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.However, after suffering thousands of casualties, many Iranians are likely to resent Arab governments that are perceived as working to block U.S. action against regime targets.Public sentiment in Iran already includes deep historical grievances toward Arabs, rooted in the Islamic conquest of Persia 1,400 years ago and the destruction of Iran’s pre-Islamic empire and cultural heritage, and reinforced by modern regional politics.If a secular, anti-Islamist revolution ultimately succeeds, some Arab governments may find themselves confronting a new Iranian leadership—and public mood—that is far less inclined toward accommodation or goodwill than in the past.The post Why Arab states are trying to prevent a US attack on Iran – opinion appeared first on World Israel News.