EUR/USD Trapped in Downtrend- Breakout Risk BrewingEuro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDFOREXcomEuro reversed off confluent resistance last month at 1.1794/.1813- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the November advance and the 2025 high-day close (HDC). The pullback has now extended more than 1.6% off the December high with the weekly opening-range set just above the November HDC at 1.1634. Look for a breakout here in the days ahead to offer guidance with the multi-week downtrend still in play while below the 1.17-handle. Price is trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the December high. Resistance is eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline and the mid-December swing lows at 1.1691-1.1703- note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold over the next few sessions and a topside breach / daily close above is needed to invalidate the multi-week downtrend in Euro. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the objective yearly open at 1.1735/46 with a breach above 1.1794-1.1813 still needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. A break below the median-line would expose the next key support zone at 1.1590/98- a region defined by the December low, the 100% extension of the late-December decline, and the 61.8% retracement of the November advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with losses below the 200-Day moving average at (currently ~1.1577) needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway. The next major technical consideration rests with the November low-day close (LDC), and the March 2020 / 2022 highs at 1.1492/97. Bottom line: Euro is trading within the confines of a near-term downtrend off the late-December high with the weekly opening-range carved just below downtrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1703 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the weekly open needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. Ultimately a larger setback here may offer more favorable opportunities closer to trend support. -MB