Bitcoin formed a large Inverted Head & Shoulders on the MTFBitcoinOANDA:BTCUSDAJCRYPTO251. Market Structure & Pattern Context What we are looking at here is a large Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the monthly chart: • Left Shoulder formed around the 2021–2022 distribution. • Head printed at the 2022 bear market low. • Right Shoulder built during the 2023 accumulation phase. • The neckline is the long, slightly rising resistance that capped price for almost three years. That neckline has now been decisively broken and retested. This is not a small technical breakout. This is a multi-year regime change signal. Structurally, this implies: • The 2022 bear market is fully resolved. • Bitcoin has transitioned back into a primary bull trend. 2. Price Behavior After the Breakout Post-breakout, we see three key things: 1. Acceptance above the neckline Price is not rejecting. It is holding above former resistance, now acting as support. 2. Higher lows (green arrows) This confirms that demand is stepping in on dips — classic bull market behavior. 3. Impulse leg followed by consolidation This is healthy, not weak. Strong markets move in expansions and pause, not straight lines. This is typical post-breakout re-accumulation before the next trend leg. 3. Technical Bias Primary Bias: Bullish Continuation As long as price holds above the neckline region, the market structure favors: • Trend continuation, not distribution. • Shallow pullbacks, not deep bear market retracements. This looks more like a mid-cycle consolidation, not a cycle top. 4. Scenarios Going Forward Scenario A – Base Case (Most Probable) • Bitcoin holds the neckline support. • Continues to build higher lows. • Breaks the current range and expands toward new all-time highs. • Momentum accelerates once the consolidation resolves. This is a classic breakout → retest → continuation sequence. Scenario B – Healthy Pullback, Still Bullish • Price may dip back toward the neckline zone. • This would be a structural retest, not weakness. • As long as it reclaims and closes above that zone, it reinforces the bull case and offers strong risk-reward long opportunities. Think of this as reload before expansion. Scenario C – Bearish Invalidity (Low Probability for Now) •Sustained acceptance back below the neckline. • Failure to reclaim on the next bounce. • This would suggest a false breakout and a deeper corrective phase. Only then would the long-term bullish thesis be questioned. Until that happens, this remains a bull-market structure. 5. Macro Outlook for Bitcoin From a macro perspective, Bitcoin currently sits at a powerful intersection: 1. Liquidity Cycle Global liquidity is slowly turning from contraction to expansion. Historically, Bitcoin performs best when: o Real rates peak. o Monetary policy transitions from restrictive to accommodative. o Balance sheet expansion and fiscal pressure rise. 2. Rate Cut Expectations Even the expectation of easing tends to front-run price. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to future liquidity, not just present conditions. 3. Store-of-Value Narrative Persistent inflation, sovereign debt growth, and currency debasement keep BTC attractive as a hard-asset alternative, alongside gold. 4. Post-Halving Dynamics Supply issuance is structurally constrained, while institutional demand is structurally rising. This asymmetry favors upside over the medium term. 6. My Overall Bias In simple terms: This chart does not look like distribution. It looks like a completed base and an early-to-mid bull cycle expansion phase. Corrections are likely to be: • Rotational. • Time-based more than price-destructive. Not trend-reversing. As long as Bitcoin holds above the broken neckline, the path of least resistance remains upward. Conclusion: Bitcoin is behaving like an asset that has: • Absorbed multi-year supply. • Regained macro tailwinds. • Re-entered a structural growth phase. My bias stays bullish, with any controlled pullbacks viewed as opportunity rather than risk. This is not euphoria. This is re-accumulation before continuation.