Microsoft. Great business. Tough tape.Microsoft CorporationBATS:MSFTBlueberryMicrosoft came into the year priced for AI dominance and flawless execution. The business still delivers. The stock does not have the same margin for error. Rallies into the 430–440 zone have failed. Buyers hesitate. Sellers appear. That tells you expectations are heavy. The OpenAI advantage is narrowing at the margin. Models are commoditising faster than the market expected. Compute is expensive but available. Distribution still matters, and Microsoft owns it, but narrative premiums are compressing. That hits multiples, not revenues. Capex is the next pressure point. Data centre spend is enormous and visible. Investors are no longer waving it through. They want returns, timelines and proof. Add political and social scrutiny around power usage and infrastructure and the risk premium rises. There is also internal tension. AI boosts productivity but threatens parts of Microsoft’s legacy software economics. Copilot is strategic. It is also cannibalistic. Transitions like that are rarely clean in the eyes of the market. Competition matters too. Alphabet is executing better. The gap story is fading, even if Microsoft remains the enterprise leader. If 400 breaks, momentum traders step away and 370 becomes the natural magnet. That is where longer-term investors may return. Microsoft remains a great business. This year, it is a crowded trade adjusting to reality. The stock feels like digestion, not discovery. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.