Deficits boost U.S. debt but also inflate corporate profits and stocks, so reducing red ink could trigger a financial crisis, analysts warn

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0;switch(e){case"expanded_panel":o='{promoMarkup}{notifMarkup}',r=n._store.getNotifications(),a=n._generatePanelMarkup(o,r),i.innerHTML=a;break;case"error_panel":a=(o='{errorMsg}').replace("{errorMsg}",n._config.panel.errorMsg),i.innerHTML=a}t&&t()}else t&&t(new Error("No panel parent"))}},{key:"createPanelParentNode",value:function(e){e&&(e.innerHTML='',this._panelNode=document.getElementById(P))}},{key:"updateBadgeNode",value:function(e){if(e){var t=this._store.getNotifications().newCount,n=this._config.badge.maxCount;if(t){var o=t>n?n+"+":t;e.innerHTML=o}else e.innerHTML=""}}},{key:"addStyles",value:function(e){if(e&&"undefined"!=typeof window){var t=document.getElementById(this._config.panel.styleTagId);t||((t=document.createElement("style")).type="text/css",t.id=this._config.panel.styleTagId,t.innerText=e,document.head.appendChild(t))}}}]),e}(),j=function(){function e(t,n,o){E(this,e);var i=this;i._store=n,i._view=o,i._config=t;var 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Pickard, senior vice president for research, traced the historical trend between the deficit and how earnings are recycled to inflate asset prices.“In the financialized U.S. economy, each dollar of deficit spending may flow into a dollar of corporate profit,” they wrote.Annual budget deficits have reached $2 trillion, with debt-servicing costs alone hitting $1 trillion. As federal spending exceeds revenue by wider margins, the Treasury Department must issue greater volumes of bonds.Much of the money the government raises by selling debt goes into consumers’ pockets, primarily via entitlement payments, which eventually boost profits, according to Research Affiliates.But for decades, companies largely didn’t invest those profits to expand their capacity. Due to intense global competition, especially from China, returns from U.S domestic production were kept low. And even the money that is invested wound up replacing depreciated capacity rather than expanding it.As a result, companies returned much of their capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends, which were plowed back into financial markets, often in price-insensitive passive funds that inflate valuations, the report argued.“Mandated to remain fully invested, these funds then recycle the inflows to purchase stocks in proportion to their market capitalization indifferent to valuation, thus bidding up prices without any change in fundamentals,” Brightman and Pickard wrote.They pointed to a real-world experiment that reinforces their thesis. During the late 1990s, the federal government briefly erased its budget deficit and actually boasted a surplus.That came as the booming economy helped lift revenue while cuts to federal welfare programs limited spending. During this period, corporate profits fell too, they added.This dependence on federal deficits has left financial markets increasingly fragile, the report warned, as corporate earnings have shifted away from relying on returns from private investment.“Reversion to a healthier macroeconomic environment of declining deficit spending and greater net investment may cause sharp declines in both corporate profits and valuation multiples and likely trigger a financial crisis with politically toxic consequences,” Brightman and Pickard concluded.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,940.01 -4.46 (-0.06%)Dow 3049,359.33 -83.11 (-0.17%)Nasdaq23,515.39 -14.63 (-0.06%)Russell 20002,677.74 +3.18 (+0.12%)VIX15.86 +0.02 (+0.13%)Gold4,595.40 -28.30 (-0.61%)Trending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 95,124.59 -197.12 (-0.21%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 3,314.32 +26.75 (+0.81%)XRP-USD XRP USD 2.06 +0.00 (+0.07%)SOL-USD Solana USD 142.76 -1.60 (-1.11%)BTC-CAD Bitcoin CAD 132,456.23 -274.48 (-0.21%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersIBRX ImmunityBio, Inc. 5.52 +1.57 (+39.75%)AGX Argan, Inc. 383.66 +54.00 (+16.38%)RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. 19.24 +2.67 (+16.11%)ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. 115.77 +14.52 (+14.34%)FIGR Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. 73.91 +8.99 (+13.86%)Top losersZGN Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. 9.56 -1.46 (-13.25%)SSL Sasol Limited 6.31 -0.84 (-11.75%)TLN Talen Energy Corporation 371.66 -47.41 (-11.31%)CEG Constellation Energy Corporation 307.71 -33.42 (-9.80%)GTM ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. 9.04 -0.96 (-9.65%)Most activeIBRX ImmunityBio, Inc. 5.52 +1.57 (+39.75%)ONDS Ondas Inc. 12.16 -0.66 (-5.15%)NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 186.23 -0.76 (-0.41%)INTC Intel Corporation 46.96 -1.35 (-2.78%)BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. 6.12 -0.05 (-0.81%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events