136 Years of SPX vs. Silver – What Should You Do in 2026?SPX/SILVERSP:SPX/TVC:SILVERCryptoEngineeringThis chart shows the S&P 500 / Silver ratio (SPX/Silver) going all the way back to 1890 – a 136-year view of how U.S. equities have performed relative to silver. The equity data before 1926 is reconstructed from the work of Alfred Cowles and later Robert Shiller; the modern S&P 500 index was created in 1957 and its predecessor, the S&P 90, began in 1926. Silver prices are taken from long-term historical series that track spot prices back to the early 1900s. So this ratio is not just a chart – it’s a 136-year financial history of stocks vs. hard money. 🌍 What the World Lived Through (1890–2026) During this period, the world went through: 1914–1918: First World War 1929: U.S. stock market crash 1930s: Great Depression 1936–1939: Spanish Civil War 1939–1945: Second World War 1950: Korean War 1970s: Oil crises and inflation shock 1982: Worst U.S. recession in 40 years 1987: Black Monday crash 1995–2001: Dot-Com bubble 2008: Global Financial Crisis 2020: Covid crash And yet, through all of this, the SPX/Silver ratio has moved in very large cycles, telling us when: Paper assets (stocks) dominate, and Hard money (silver) swings back with a vengeance. 🧮 The Five Big SPX/Silver Cycles Using your key levels from the chart, here are the most important turning points: 1️⃣ 1930s – Great Depression Mean Reversion April 1, 1930: SPX/Silver ≈ 70 April 1, 1935: SPX/Silver ≈ 12.5 Move in the ratio: Drop: 82.1% from 70 → 12.5 Relative performance: 70 / 12.5 = 5.6× 👉 Silver outperformed the S&P by about 5.6x over that 5-year window. 2️⃣ 1970s – End of the Bretton Woods System / Stagflation Oct 1, 1971: SPX/Silver ≈ 76 Oct 1, 1974: SPX/Silver ≈ 12.5 Move in the ratio: Drop: 83.6% from 76 → 12.5 Relative performance: 76 / 12.5 ≈ 6.1× 👉 In the early 1970s inflation shock, silver outperformed stocks by ~6x. 3️⃣ 1980 – The Silver Mania Bottom in the Ratio Jan 1, 1980: SPX/Silver ≈ 2.34 This is the lowest level in history. From there, the next major top was: Aug 1, 2000: SPX/Silver ≈ 310 The highest level in history. Move in the ratio: From 2.34 → 310 = ~132× increase Silver massively underperformed; stocks dominated the next 20 years. This is the mirror image: buying silver at the 1980 mania top and holding vs. SPX was catastrophic. 4️⃣ 2000–2011 – Tech Bubble to GFC to Silver Boom Aug 1, 2000: SPX/Silver ≈ 310 (all-time high) Aug 1, 2011: SPX/Silver ≈ 26 Move in the ratio: Drop: 91.6% from 310 → 26 Relative performance: 310 / 26 ≈ 11.9× 👉 From 2000 to 2011, silver outperformed the S&P by almost 12x. This captures the tech bust + GFC + big silver bull into 2011. 5️⃣ 2024–2025 – Our Current Cycle Feb 1, 2024: SPX/Silver ≈ 225 Jan 14, 2025: SPX/Silver ≈ 76 Move in the ratio so far: Drop: 66.2% from 225 → 76 Relative performance: 225 / 76 ≈ 3.0× 👉 In less than a year, silver has already outperformed the S&P by ~3x. Note something extremely important: 📌 The 70–76 zone has acted as a key “ceiling” (resistance) for the SPX/Silver ratio between 1930 and 1991 – for about 61 years. In previous cycles, when the ratio was rising into the 70–76 zone, it marked the end of stock outperformance and the start of a huge silver cycle. Today, the ratio is falling down into 76 from above, which means we are in the middle of a silver outperformance phase, not at the start. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 👨👩👦 Maurice, Robert and Richard in January 1991 The chart tells a powerful story: 👨👩👦 Maurice buys silver on Jan 14, 1991 and holds until Jan 14, 2026. 👨👩👦 Robert buys the S&P 500 on the same date and holds until Jan 14, 2026. 👨👩👦 Richard buys the S&P 500 with 50% of his money and silver with the rest 50% on the same date and holds until Jan 14, 2026. Because the ratio in 1991 and 2026 is the same, Maurice, Robert and Richard end up with roughly the same dollar value (ignoring fees and taxes). Over 35 years, their returns are similar despite choosing completely different assets. ------------------------------------- 👨👩👦 Now we meet Richard in January 2026. He looks at this 136-year chart and has to decide: I already have some money both in the SPX and Silver. “Should I rebalance or stay 50% - 50% for the next 5-10 years?” Today (Ratio ≈ 75) Richard should take some profit from Silver and move into SPX: 📌 Recommended Allocation: 60% SPX 40% Silver Why? Because: Ratio is sitting at previous resistance zone (70–76) Short-term SPX might outperform in a relief rally Silver has already made a historic move against SPX Protective rebalancing reduces risk of a sharp mean-reversion This is called risk-adjusted rebalancing. Not selling silver completely — just trimming it. If Ratio drops to 50: ➡️ Move to 70% SPX / 30% Silver If Ratio drops to 31–26: ➡️ Move to 80% SPX / 20–25% Silver If Ratio drops to 31–26: ➡️ Move to 80% SPX / 20% Silver If Ratio drops to below 25: ➡️He has a story to tell to his grandchildren...