HIGH RISK: S&P 500 Looks Like Distribution at the TopUS SPX 500OANDA:SPX500USDshakatrade1_618The impulse SPX SPX500USD SPY that started back in April is clearly losing momentum. The current structure increasingly resembles an ending diagonal (rising wedge) within wave 5 of that broader advance. This is a classic late-stage pattern that often precedes a corrective reset. The key contextual signal is that volume is concentrated near the highs, while price is not showing strong expansion. That combination typically reads as distribution: supply is being absorbed, but the market struggles to accelerate, which often happens right before a rotation lower. Base scenario As long as price remains below 7100, I keep the ending diagonal as the priority scenario and look for a near-term correction into the main downside magnets: 6500–6400 — retest of the quarterly imbalance. 6200–6100 — VWAP retest, monthly imbalance retest, and a retest of the previously broken high (potential support). Invalidation / alternative scenario If price accepts above 7100 and holds (clean acceptance, not just a wick), the diagonal thesis weakens. In that case, the market is more likely to deliver an impulsive breakout above 7100 and continue the uptrend, pushing the correction further out in time and potentially from higher levels. For now, given the structure and the way volume behaves at the highs, the near-term correction risk remains elevated.