EURUSD-long term outlook Monthly Euro/US DollarFX:EURUSDehab.f.tadrosEUR/USD Technical Outlook – Medium to Long Term The overall trend of the EUR/USD pair remains bullish on a long-term basis. The recent pullback should be viewed as a healthy corrective move, which reached the 61% Fibonacci retracement level without altering the primary upward trend. This correction is highly likely to have ended after the break above the 1.14 level, which represents a key structural support-turned-resistance zone. Current Market Structure At present, the pair is trading within a sideways consolidation range between 1.14 and 1.18. From a technical perspective, a bullish breakout to the upside is the more probable scenario. Bullish Scenario (Base Case) Short- to medium-term targets for the current year are projected at: 1.22 1.23 1.24 These levels correspond to the previous major top. On a long-term horizon, the projected target stands at 1.45, which is expected to be reached around late 2027 or 2028, assuming the current macro and technical structure remains intact. Alternative Scenario (Low Probability) A monthly close below 1.18, accompanied by strong downside momentum, would alter the bullish outlook and reduce the probability of the upward scenario. At this stage, such a breakdown is considered unlikely. Technical Indicators Confirmation Bullish Divergence (2022): The primary driver behind the current bullish trend was a clear bullish divergence in 2022 between price action and both: MACD RSI This divergence signaled a loss of bearish momentum and marked the beginning of a structural trend reversal. MACD: The indicator remains above the zero line on the monthly timeframe, confirming sustained positive momentum. RSI: RSI remains below overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside without signs of exhaustion. Trading Strategy Trading should remain aligned with the prevailing uptrend. The preferred approach is buying on pullbacks (Buy the Dip) rather than chasing price. In the event of a strong downside break below 1.18 with a confirmed monthly close, it would be prudent to step aside temporarily and reassess price behavior before initiating new positions.