Weekly Cross‑Market Review: Dollar Weakness, Equities Rally, CryU.S. Dollar Currency IndexICEUS_DLY:DXYsuper_solankiAbstract This week’s market action painted a consistent story: the dollar fell hard, global yields softened, and equities rallied toward resistance. Meanwhile, commodities (oil, gold, copper) strengthened, supporting a reflationary tone. The main caution flag: volatility gauges (VIX & VVIX) are rising, hinting that this risk‑on rally might not be bullet‑proof. In crypto, BTC and ETH tested overhead resistance with weak volume — optimism is there, but conviction is not. 🚨 Special Focus: September 17th Fed Cut The Federal Reserve’s September 17th policy decision is the most important catalyst this week. A rate cut at 2 PM EST has direct and immediate implications for all the moves outlined below: Dollar Impact: Cuts weaken the dollar further, amplifying this week’s oversold DXY. Yields: A cut locks in the recent fall in bond yields, making equities and gold more attractive. Equities: Would justify current rallies but also risks looking like “policy panic”, which can spur volatility. Commodities: Oil and Gold respond positively to looser policy → reflation + hedging. Crypto: Historically benefits from Fed easing, but watch if BTC can actually break resistance when liquidity improves. Interpretation: September 17th could either validate the risk‑on rally, or reverse it sharply if markets fear the Fed is cutting because economic weakness is worse than expected. Traders should mark 2 PM EST as a volatility event across Dollar, Yields, Equities, Commodities, and Crypto. 👉 Chart reference: US10Y 1. Dollar & FX: Oversold Break DXY dropped to ~96.6, oversold on RSI (26) after repeated breaks of structure. EURUSD surged past 1.18, entering overbought momentum. USDJPY and USDCAD both slipped lower, aligning with dollar weakness. USDINR weakened to 88.0 → 87.85 POI, showing INR strength matched with NIFTY breakout. Interpretation: The dollar is oversold and losing momentum — normally bullish for risk assets. But extreme RSI means a technical bounce is possible. 👉 Chart here: DXY / EURUSD 2. Yields: Relief for Equities US10Y at 4.03%, US30Y at 4.65% — both off highs, easing pressure on stocks. CA10Y fell to 3.16%, tailwind for CAD and TSX. IN10Y steady ~6.49%, supportive backdrop for India. Interpretation: Lower yields = fresh air for equities. Bonds validating a mild risk‑on bias. 👉 Chart here: US10Y / Global Yields 3. U.S. Equities: Bulls in Control S&P 500 at 6607, up ~2.9% this week, testing resistance. Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.5%, now overbought on RSI. Dow Jones up 1.7%, steady breadth support. Interpretation: U.S. indices are riding the yield drop, but now pressing major resistance zones. Easy money for bulls is fading — the next leg requires stronger conviction. 👉 Chart here: SPX (NDX and DJI showing similar characteristic on their respective charts) 4. Global Equities: India & Canada Stand Out NIFTY broke to 25,239, clean resistance breakout, INR strength aligned. TSX surged 3.7% with oil, CAD, and yields falling in sync. EuroStoxx (SX5E) consolidated flat — showing Europe still lagging. Interpretation: The best relative strength came from India and Canada. Europe lagged, lacking energy leverage. 👉 Chart here: NIFTY / TSX 5. Commodities: Reflation Pulse Oil climbed to $64.6, breaking resistance. Gold at $3695 (+2.6%), safe‑haven demand still alive. Copper to $4.70, break higher supportive for growth assets. Interpretation: Energy and metals are supporting the equity rally. Gold rising alongside = investors hedging tail risk too. 👉 Chart here: Oil / Gold 6. Volatility: Under the Hood VIX back up to 16.4, rising after being crushed. VVIX surged to 104, volatility of vol is warning of unstable positioning. IndiaVIX collapsed below 11, reflecting too much complacency locally. Interpretation: While equities scream “bull!”, vol warns risk management is key. This is not free money. 👉 Chart here: VIX 7. Crypto: Resistance Check BTC at 116.6k and ETH at 4.5k: both testing resistance with weak volumes. BNB surged +5.7%, outperformed majors. SOL held above 228–236, neutral bias. XRP stuck near 3.0, chopping sideways. Interpretation: Trend is up in sympathy with equities, but risk of rejection at resistance is very real. Without stronger volumes, crypto remains a “show me” trade. 👉 Chart here: BTC 💡 Big Picture Takeaway Dollar tanking = equity and commodity rally fuel. Yields easing = confirms risk‑on conditions. Equities at resistance with rising vol = bulls in control, but fragility building. Crypto is lagging in volume — it benefits from macro tailwind but not leading. Best relative strength: NIFTY, TSX, Oil, Gold. Fed rate cut on Sep 17 = the true decision point for trend continuation or reversal. 🎯 Conclusion — Risk‑On, But Fed Holds the Key Markets rewarded risk this week as the dollar collapsed and yields faded. But overbought equities, crypto resistances, and rising volatility gauges warn that the move is not bullet‑proof. The September 17th Fed cut at 2 PM is the ultimate test. If the cut is seen as proactive stimulus, the rally has room to extend. If it’s read as a panic signal, what looks like risk‑on could swiftly unwind. ✅ Bias for the coming week: constructive risk‑on until the Fed cut, then stand ready for sharp volatility. 📌 For traders: Buy dips in leaders (NIFTY, TSX, commodities) before the Fed — reduce leverage into decision. For investors: Stay allocated with hedges in vol and gold. DXY USDINR USDCAD EURUSD US10Y SPX NDX DJI NIFTY TSX SX5E CL1! XAUUSD VIX BTCUSD