FundamentalOverviewThe USD came under renewedpressure last Thursday following an in-line US CPI report and surprisingly weak initial jobless claims. The jobless claims data stole theshow as initial claims jumped to a new cycle high and the highest level since2021. Eventually, it turned outthat the spike in initial claims was caused by an increase in fraudulentclaim attempts in Texas. Therefore, in light of this new information, joblessclaims still point to a resilient labour market and the fall in continuingclaims could actually be an early signal of improvement.Overall, if one zooms out,the US dollar has been mostly rangebound even though the dovish bets on the Fedkept weighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearishpositioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be at the peak ofthe dovish pricing. In fact, if the rate cutstrigger stronger economic activity in the next months, the rate cuts in 2026could be priced out and support the dollar. For now, the trend is still skewedto the downside, and we might need strong data to reverse it.On the CHF side, we haven’tgot anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB has ended its easingcycle. The last Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation but even ifwe get more such reports, it won’t change anything for the SNB given thatthere’s a long way to go before breaching their 2% inflation limit. On theother hand, the central bank is very reluctant to cut rates into negativeterritory, so this leaves the CHF trading based on weakness and strength ofother currencies.USDCHFTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDCHF fell all the way back to the key swing level around the 0.79handle. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined riskbelow the level to position for a rally into the major trendlinearound the 0.80 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see theprice breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into a new cycle low.USDCHF TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we got the pullback into the 0.7990 resistance zone last week and then we startedto roll over following the US CPI and jobless claims reports. The sellersmaintained control as the dovish positioning into the FOMC remained intactgiven the lack of new catalysts. There’s not much else we can glean from thistimeframe as the buyers will look to buy the dip at these levels, while thesellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into new lows.USDCHF TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If weget a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on thetrendline with a defined risk above it to position for a move into new lows.The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase thebullish bets into the 0.7970 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UpcomingCatalystsToday we get the US Retail Sales data. Tomorrow, we havethe FOMC policy announcement. On Thursday, we get the lates US Jobless Claimsfigures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.