Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2025 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004The key fundamental driver remains unchanged: the yield and rate gap between the US and Japan, where the Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose policy while the US supports relatively high yields, systematically supporting long USD positions against the yen. In quiet periods, carry trade mechanics work stably, and occasional verbal interventions from Tokyo usually have short-lived effect without trend base changes absent central bank policy shifts. On this background, even after pullbacks, the pair tends to resume gains reflecting yield premium and global USD demand amid strengthening US macro data. News assessments on EURUSD and market sentiment highlight high USD sensitivity to inflation and labor data releases, which, upon strong data, usually translates into USDJPY gains via the UST curve. With ECB holding rates and markets expecting Fed easing later, short-term USD fluctuations are often data surprise-driven, while yen remains the "weak link" due to BOJ policy. Therefore, an entry near 147.800 is justified for tactical buying with controlled risk until signs of sustained policy shifts in Tokyo or sharp US yield drops emerge. Current cross rates through EUR confirm the USDJPY calculated target near 147.800 for today's session, consistent with entry choice at 147.800 for carry-support continuation scenario. Risk management implies a tight stop within 0.20 given possible short-term volatility on news and comments from Japanese officials. The target around 148.800 reflects gradual advance amid sustaining divergence in US-Japan monetary regimes. Trading recommendation: BUY 147.800, SL 147.600, TP 148.800