袁莉2025年9月23日 Dongyan XuIn early March, I asked a lawyer, a naturalized citizen living in Texas, whether he shared the unease among Chinese immigrants that American politics under President Trump was beginning to echo the China we left behind: fawning officials, intimidation of the press and business leaders currying favor with leadership.今年3月初，我曾问一名住在得克萨斯州、已入籍美国的律师，是否和其他中国移民一样感到忧虑，担心特朗普总统领导下的美国政治正在开始重复我们已经远离的中国政治：阿谀奉承的官员，用威逼的方式控制媒体，商界领袖讨好领导层。He shrugged. As long as late-night talk show hosts can still make fun of the president, he said, American democracy is safe.他耸了耸肩。只要深夜脱口秀的主持人还能调侃总统，他说，美国的民主制度就是安全的。For those of us who grew up under strict censorship, late-night comedy always felt like an emblem of American freedom. The idea that millions of Americans could go to bed each night having watched their presidents mocked felt almost magical, something unimaginable where we came from.对我们这些在严格审查制度下长大的人来说，深夜脱口秀一直是美国自由的象征。数百万美国人能在每晚睡觉前观看他们的总统被嘲讽的节目，这个事实给人一种几乎奇妙的感觉，在我们来自的地方是不可想像的。That’s why ABC’s suspension of the Jimmy Kimmel show after pressure from the Trump administration, amid the president’s public threats toward critical journalists, felt so jarring. To many Chinese who have endured the relentless erosion of speech by the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, it felt ominous. Free speech rarely vanishes in a single blow. It erodes until silence feels normal.这就是美国广播公司(ABC)的做法让人焦虑不安的原因。在特朗普总统公开威胁批评他的记者时，ABC在政府压力下暂停了吉米·坎摩尔的深夜秀（又译“吉米鸡毛秀”）。对于许多经历过国家最高领导人习近平无情压制言论自由的华人来说，这是不祥之兆。言论自由很少一下子就消失，而是逐渐受到侵蚀，直到人们觉得沉默是正常的。“Coming from a dictatorship, people like me are sharply attuned to these things,” said Zhang Wenmin, a former investigative journalist in China better known for her pen name Jiang Xue. “We can sense how freedoms are chipped away little by little.”“像我这样从独裁统治下出来的人对这些事情极为熟悉，”曾在中国当过调查记者、笔名江雪的张文敏说。“我们能感觉到自由是怎样一点一点被削弱的。”Ms. Zhang was repeatedly harassed and threatened for what state security agents called her “negative reporting” on China. She now lives in the United States.张文敏曾多次受到国家安全人员的骚扰和威胁，他们认为她对中国进行“负面报道”。她现居美国。The United States is not China. Constitutional protections, an independent judiciary and a robust civil society still provide guardrails. Yet the Trump administration’s menacing comments and actions show how those guardrails can be weakened.美国不是中国。宪法保护、独立的司法体系以及强大的公民社会仍为美国提供着护栏。但特朗普政府的威胁性言行表明，这些护栏可能会如何被削弱。吉米·坎摩尔去年主持了第96届奥斯卡颁奖典礼。上周，他的节目被停播，因为ABC认为他关于保守派活动人士查理·柯克遭枪击身亡的评论“越界”了。The path China has traveled can offer lessons for Americans about how freedom is lost and the resulting cost.中国已走上的道路可以为美国人提供教训，让他们了解言论自由是如何失去的，以及由此带来的代价。China has not always been as tightly controlled as it has become under Mr. Xi. In the 1990s and 2000s, censorship could be harsh and people went to jail for their political views. But there was still space for free expression.中国并非一直像现在这样受到严密控制，那是习近平上台后的做法。虽然在20世纪90年代和21世纪初，中国的审查制度也很严厉，人们会因政治观点被关进监狱，但当时仍存在言论自由的空间。Investigative journalists like Ms. Zhang helped expose corrupt officials. The internet and social media then also allowed public debate, and people were able to pressure the government to respond to their concerns.像张文敏这样的调查记者曾帮助揭露腐败的官员。中国的互联网和社交媒体那时也曾允许公众辩论，人们能迫使政府对他们担心的事情做出回应。That started to change, step by step, after Mr. Xi took power in late 2012. He muzzled a newspaper’s editorial, elevated the role of a government official to control the internet and declared that all media must “love, protect and serve the Communist Party.” There was resistance: strikes by journalists, protests by members of the public, and displays of solidarity from entertainers, intellectuals and entrepreneurs. The government responded with arrests, penalties and prohibitions.这种情况在2012年底习近平上台后开始逐步改变。他封杀了一家报纸的社论，赋予了政府官员更大权力来控制互联网，并宣布所有的媒体必须“爱党、护党、为党”。有过抵制：有些记者曾罢工，民众中曾有人抗议，也曾有来自艺人、知识分子以及企业家的声援展示。政府做出的回应是逮捕、处罚和禁令。Within a few years, it became impossible to do critical journalism in China. Investigative reporters became “extinct.” The social media site Weibo, once a cacophony of debate, became an amplifier for state media. Websites were censored, and forced to self censor, to survive.没过几年，在中国做批评性新闻报道已变得不可能。调查记者“快要绝种”。曾充满了嘈杂争论的社交媒体网站微博，现已变成了官媒的扩音器。网站受到审查，为了继续存在下去，它们也被迫自我审查。The cost of stifling speech had consequences. When an unknown pneumonia surfaced in Wuhan near the end of 2019, Dr. Li Wenliang tried to warn colleagues and friends. He was reprimanded for “spreading rumors.” Warnings were delayed; the window for a public-health response narrowed. After Dr. Li’s death, his message — “a healthy society should not have only one voice” — circulated as both a plea and an indictment.压制言论总会有代价。2019年底，武汉出现了病因不明的肺炎病例后，李文亮医生曾试图警告同事和朋友。他因“散布谣言”受到了警方训诫。警告被搁置；做出公共卫生响应的时间窗口缩小。李文亮去世后，他的信息——“一个健康的社会不该只有一种声音”曾在网上广泛流传，那既是恳求，也是控诉。As the coronavirus spread worldwide, Mr. Xi jailed and silenced more of his critics and mobilized the public to attack a novelist who kept an online diary of her experiences in Wuhan.随着新冠病毒在全球蔓延，习近平对更多的批评者进行监禁和噤声，还发动群众攻击一名小说家，因为她把自己在武汉的经历用日记形式发表在网上。2020年，民众悼念李文亮医生。他因在2019年底武汉出现不明肺炎时“散布谣言”而遭到训诫。The chilling effect took hold. The Chinese internet devolved into a platform for nationalists to praise the government and Mr. Xi. Dissent or criticism is not tolerated. Online grievances are attacked, called ammunition for hostile foreign media. Even public grief and videos about poverty are censored.寒蝉效应让人不敢发声。中国的互联网变成了民族主义者为政府和习近平歌功颂德的平台。异见或批评不被容忍。在网上表达不满情绪的人遭到攻击，他们被称为给境外敌对媒体递刀子的人。甚至连公开哀悼和有关贫困的视频也遭到审查。The control hasn’t stopped at news media and social media. Films were edited to erase same-sex relationships. Hip-hop artists were ordered to radiate “positive energy.” Economists were told not to speak negatively about China.这种控制不只是针对新闻报道和社交媒体。电影中有关同性恋的情节被剪辑删除。嘻哈艺人被要求传播“正能量”。经济学家被告知不得对中国发表负面言论。Any criticism or mocking of Mr. Xi was forbidden. In 2017, the government censored images and mentions of Winnie-the-Pooh because some saw a resemblance to Mr. Xi.任何批评或嘲讽习近平的言论都被禁止。2017年，政府审查了有关小熊维尼的图片和相关言论，因为有人认为它看起来像习近平。Ren Zhiqiang, a retired real estate developer, is serving an 18-year sentence for calling Mr. Xi “a power-hungry clown.” Cai Xia, a retired professor at the Communist Party Central School, lost her party membership and pension for calling Mr. Xi a “mafia ringleader.”已退休的房地产开发商任志强因称习近平是“渴望权力的小丑”被判处18年有期徒刑，目前仍在狱中。已从中央党校退休的教授蔡霞因称习近平是“黑帮老大”被开除党籍，并被剥夺了退休金。Under Mr. Xi, China made it a crime to criticize martyrs and heroes, prosecuting even perceived slander of Communist Party figures.在习近平领导下，中国把批评烈士和英雄定为犯罪，甚至起诉那些所谓诽谤中共人物的人。The Chinese government fined a comedy studio about $2 million in 2023 for a joke comparing China’s military to stray dogs, saying the comedian “severely insulted” the People’s Liberation Army.2023年，因为一个将中国军队比作流浪狗的笑话，中国政府对一家喜剧工作室处以1335万元的罚款，称这名喜剧演员“严重侮辱”了中国人民解放军。Mr. Xi’s effectively canceled voices that are not aligned with his vision for China.习近平已有效地让那些与他的中国愿景不一致的声音彻底消失。This is why the silencing of Mr. Kimmel and the subsequent remarks by Mr. Trump and his allies ring an alarm for those who have watched freedoms in China erode.对于那些目睹了中国的言论自由遭受侵蚀的人而言，坎摩尔被禁言加上特朗普及其盟友们随后发表的言论导致警钟敲响。Mr. Kimmel’s show was suspended after he made a remark speculating about the political beliefs of the man who is accused of assassinating the conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Think of China’s criminal code for slandering martyrs.在坎摩尔发表了一番评论，推测被指控暗杀保守派活动人士查理·柯克的那名男子的政治立场后，“鸡毛秀”被停播。想一想中国刑法中的诽谤烈士罪吧。Mr. Trump said last Friday that news reporters who cover his administration negatively were breaking the law. “They’ll take a great story, and they’ll make it bad,” he said. “See, I think that’s really illegal.” Think of Mr. Xi’s instruction that news reporting should steadfastly focus on positive coverage.特朗普上周五说，对其政府进行负面报道的新闻记者违反了法律。“他们把一个伟大的故事说成坏故事，”他说。“你看，我认为那真的是违法。”想一想习近平对新闻报道必须牢牢坚持正面宣传的指示吧。华远地产前董事长任志强，摄于2018年。他因称习近平是“渴望权力的小丑”而被判处18年有期徒刑，目前仍在狱中。 Oriental Image, via Reuters ConnectOn the Chinese internet, many people sensed something familiar in Mr. Kimmel’s suspension. “Has Trump been trained in China?” asked a Weibo commenter. “The U.S. starts to feel more and more like a dictatorship,” said a comment under a WeChat video posted by the official Xinhua News Agency.在中国的互联网上，许多人从坎摩尔被停职这件事上感到了一种似曾相识的东西。“特朗普是在中国受的训练吗？”有人在微博上评论道。“美国越来越像一个独裁政权了，”还有人在官媒新华社发的一个微信视频下写道。Chinese government censors usually leave more room for the public to express their opinions on unflattering news posts about the United States. Their aim is to help promote the narrative that China is ascendant and the United States is declining.中国政府的审查者们通常会在美国的负面新闻下给公众留下更多的表达空间，目的是帮助宣传中国正在崛起、美国正在衰落的叙事。The United States is far from a one-party state. But China’s example shows how total control can be achieved step by step, through top-down pressure and the self censorship that follows.美国离一党专制还很远。但中国的例子表明，通过自上而下的压力和随后的自我审查，可以逐步实现全面控制。Michael Berry, a professor of Chinese literature and cinema at the University of California, Los Angeles, likens the process to how an electric fence holds sheep back: They need to be shocked only once or twice before they never approach the boundary again. That’s how self-censorship works in China, he said, and “now it seems like that’s what’s happening here.”在加州大学洛杉矶分校研究中国文学和电影的教授白睿文(Michael Berry)将这个过程与电围栏如何挡住羊做比较：羊只需要被电击一两次，就永远不会再靠近围栏。这就是中国自我审查的运作方式，他说，“现在似乎类似的事情正在这里发生。”Mr. Berry said he was worried that the survival strategy of many Chinese intellectuals — to stop speaking out to stay out of trouble — will take root in the United States as people realize they must be cautious to avoid repercussions.白睿文说，为避免麻烦而保持沉默是许多中国知识分子的生存之道，他担心，随着人们意识到为避免不良后果而需要谨慎行事，这一策略将在美国深入人心。Ms. Zhang, the former journalist, said she had been unsettled to see American institution like ABC and its parent company, Disney, yield to political pressure. She said she and her Chinese friends used to blame themselves for not resisting Beijing more boldly. “I never imagined Americans would be so meek,” she said. “By comparison, we were actually pretty brave.”曾任记者的张文敏说，看到像美国广播公司及其母公司迪士尼这样的美国机构在政治压力下屈服，她感到不安。她说，她和她的中国朋友们以前曾责备自己没有更大胆地抵抗中国政府。“我从没想像过美国人会这么驯服，”她说。“相比之下，我们其实相当勇敢。”袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。