Fundamental Market Analysis for September 17, 2025 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The pound is supported by sticky domestic inflation: in July, the index accelerated to 3.8% y/y, and releases and commentary point to the risk of sustained high inflation, forcing the Bank of England to act cautiously in easing pace and maintaining a premium on UK yields. The scenario of a 25 bps Fed rate cut today sets a softer external backdrop for USD and narrows the yield differential in favor of GBP, boosting inflows into sterling assets on expectations that the BoE will signal slower easing ahead given persistent price pressures. Market ranges for GBPUSD in recent weeks concentrated around 1.35000–1.36000, which is confirmed by price behavior and news flow, aligning the chosen trade levels with current spot values and fundamental drivers. Additionally, market participants monitor U.S. developments: ahead of the Fed meeting the dollar index declined and equities traded cautiously, reflecting near‑full pricing of a 25 bps cut and the search for dovish hints in the statement, which, if confirmed, strengthens the case for pound appreciation. The risk balance for GBP is also supported by the fact that the BoE has eased gradually before and may prefer a pause if service inflation accelerates, maintaining sterling’s appeal relative to currencies with faster rate cuts. Trade recommendation: GBPUSD: BUY 1.36500, SL 1.36300, TP 1.37500