This is what is going to happen with BTC today, FOMC daBitcoin / US DollarBINANCE:BTCUSDmatoxviewMy FOMC-Day Playbook (Trader’s Read) Probabilities (today) •Sell-the-news (spike then fade): ~60% •Mini altseason (ETH leads, large caps follow): ~25% •BTC bullish continuation after the announcement: ~15% ← my BTC-only continuation probability Why my odds look like this •Funding is low → no derivatives euphoria; any rally needs spot demand to sustain. •Open interest is rising slowly → tape is more spot-led than leverage-led (healthier, but needs follow-through). •DVOL slightly elevated + 25Δ skew tilted to puts → market is defensive into the headline; easy to fade if spot inflows don’t show. •ETF volumes are moderate (IBIT/FBTC/ETHA) → by themselves they don’t signal a mega inflow day. What would push odds toward continuation (BTC or mini-alts) •3:50–4:00 ET auctions print big in IBIT/FBTC/ETHA. •EOD net flows ≥ $300–500M (bonus if ETH also prints strong). •Post-headline vol crush (DVOL ↓), skew normalizes, funding ≤ 0.01%, OI up gradually (spot-led), and acceptance above resistance. What would keep/raise sell-the-news risk •Weak/negative EOD flows. •Break attempts with funding ≥ 0.03% and OI ramping (crowded longs). •DVOL ↑ and skew leans further to puts during the spike. •Repeated rejections near BTC resistance (e.g., ~116–117k) with upper wicks. 1-Minute Checklist (before & after the announcement) 1Spot vs perps: if spot leads and funding stays low, I prefer buying pullbacks over chasing. 2DVOL / Skew: DVOL down + skew normalizing ⇒ continuation; DVOL up + skew to puts ⇒ fade more likely. 3ETFs: watch closing-hour volume today; then confirm EOD net flows tonight: ◦≥ $300–500M ⇒ I carry a long/buy-the-dip bias into D+1. ◦≤ 0 ⇒ I favor fading resistance into D+1. Operational stance (how I’ll trade it) •Base into the headline: cautious. I won’t chase the first candle. •Fade setup: if the breakout comes with funding/OI spiking and wicks near resistance, I treat it as spike-and-fadeback into the prior range (tight risk). •Continuation setup: if I see vol crush + strong flows and acceptance above resistance, I flip to continuation mode and buy dips, with invalidation below the most recent reclaimed level. This is my real-time framework, not financial advice. I’ll update the bias if the auction and EOD flows materially change the picture.