Gold Hits Record High as Investors Question Global Central Banks

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Gold is now at a record high due to a lack of confidence in global central banks. Interestingly, when cryptocurrencies are volatile on some days, gold prices have been resilient, so gold is apparently viewed as a safe alternative relative to the U.S. dollar. There are ten Fed governors speaking this week that should further clarify if there are going to be more key interest rates in the upcoming months and how reliant the FOMC will be on economic reports. I suspect that gold will not be adversely impacted by Fed policy, but chaos overseas with other central banks will continue to put upward pressure on gold.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that inflation concerns would make him hesitant for now to declare support for cutting rates again at the FOMC meeting in October, even though economic risks have shifted in recent months toward greater worries about employment. Specifically, Bostic said, “I am concerned about the inflation that has been too high for a long time,” then added, “And so I today would not be moving or in favor of it, but we’ll see what happens.” This double speak and hedging by Fed members remains an art form, but clearly, a poor September payroll report and rising claims for unemployment might change Bostic’s mind on future key interest rate cuts.The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index will be updated on Friday. However, most of the PCE components are out, so it appears that the core PCE, excluding food and energy, will rise 0.2% in August and at a 2.9% annual pace. The core PCE rose 0.3% in July, so it appears that the core PCE will decelerate in August. The PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, so it is imperative that the PCE does not accelerate, otherwise, it could impair future key interest rate cuts.After the $7,500 EV tax credit expires at the end of September, it will be interesting to see what happens to EV sales. Lower-cost EVs, like the Tesla Model 3s, are expected to dominate EV sales moving forward. Interestingly, Berkshire Hathaway sold its investment in BYD, which has been dominating low-cost EVs globally. Although President Trump has ended EV tax credits and the carbon credits from other automakers that enriched Tesla, the European Union (EU) remains committed to being EV-only by 2035, despite calls from BMW and Mercedes to curtail the EU emission mandate.Achieving peace in the world is complex, but I suspect a meeting with North Korea may happen, especially if it can curtail the troops and weapons that North Korea has sent to fight for Russia in Ukraine. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un said he would sit down with President Trump but would not discuss giving up nuclear weapons. Since the Trump Administration is seeking to penalize countries that do business with Russia, like India, it will be interesting to see if there will be a meeting scheduled with North Korea.