GBP/USD – Institutional Structural OutlookBritish Pound/US DollarFX:GBPUSDphilipemavMacro Context The British Pound enters the new week with institutional flows shifting aggressively to the long side, as shown in the latest COT report (+5,947 longs added, –21,078 shorts closed). This represents a structural repositioning by asset managers. At the same time, the Fed’s rate cut (4.50 → 4.25%) weighed on USD positioning, confirmed by the Dollar Index (DXY) net shorts expanding further. The macro divergence supports a long bias for GBP/USD, especially if volatility rises post-FOMC. Technical Structure Breakout & Acceptance: Market confirmed acceptance above prior resistance (1.34–1.35 range). Demand Zone: Current retest aligns with institutional demand, the Value Area Low (VAL) and round number confluence at 1.34. Dealing Range: Developing range intact; deeper demand still located around 1.3330. Premium/Discount: Price reacting precisely at the 0.75–0.85 discount zone (ideal institutional buy window). Projected Scenarios Primary Bias (Long): Continuation towards premium zones 1.38–1.39. Invalidation: Clean break and acceptance below 1.3330 would negate the bullish bias. Extension: If macro drivers (USD weakness + COT flows) remain aligned, upside may extend to 1.40 handle. Confirmation & Monitoring Weekly COT positioning – validation of institutional long flows. DXY weakness – correlation filter for GBP/USD continuation. GBP-specific catalysts – Bank of England commentary could accelerate momentum. 📌 Conclusion: GBP/USD offers one of the cleanest setups of the week ahead: macro flows + demand confluence + structural breakout. This is a textbook institutional long with asymmetrical reward.