Dollar Strength and Global Oil Glut Fears Weigh on Crude Prices

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Why Lucid (LCID) Speculators are Sounding the Short-Squeeze AlarmNat-Gas Prices Erase Early Gains on Expectations for EIA Inventories to BuildEnergy Demand Concerns Undercut Crude PricesGet exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else.Concerns about a global oil glut are bearish for crude prices after the International Energy Agency (IEA) last Thursday boosted its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, +360,000 bpd higher than anticipated in August, citing plans by OPEC+ to revive its crude production.Better-than-expected US economic news today is supportive of energy demand and crude prices.   Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -33,000 to 231,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 240,000.  Also, the Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose +23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, stronger than expectations of 1.7.Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is bullish for crude prices as it curbs Russian crude exports and tightens global oil supplies.  Ukraine attacked Russia's Salavat and Volograd oil refineries today, halting around 300,000 bpd of refining capacity.  On Tuesday, Russia's Transneft Pipeline, which handles more than 80% of the country's oil, restricted the ability to store crude.  Also, the Kirishi refinery, one of Russia's biggest refineries that has an annual processing capacity of over 20 million tons, halted crude processing after damage caused by a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday.  In addition, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian oil infrastructure and crude-exporting hubs along Russia's Baltic Coast.  Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russia's crude-processing runs to 4.98 million bpd in the first three days of September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years. 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