9/19/25 - $fi - A lil weird, tbh (mkt commentary too)Fiserv, Inc.NYSE:FIVROCKSTAR9/19/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: FI A lil weird, tbh - well let's start by reflecting... "what's not weird". - okay - on one hand the market is almost obviously over it's skis on stocks where fundamentals are something of a "we'll see in 3 years" - and where you have high quality payment names (like FI, PAYC, CPAY etc.) that trade as if the world is falling apart - which for the most part is true - so it's hard to bridge this reality. - my sense is we remain in a v toppy tape. correlation 1 across the board on revenue-lite-(or-less) names is usually what you see at *local* tops and correlation 1 across the board on quality is what you typically see at *local* bottoms. - so it's my contention that quad witch and month-end would bring some weird action. it's not surprising where HQ equities (mag7) offer some capital to risk-take off the whippet spectrum. you see the same thing in crypto during "alt season" either BTC goes side ways or is not ripping massively higher. that allows rotation out of BTC into the risk spectrum. same thing here, but clearly there's a lot more at play! - so back to FI HSD growth, probably under stated as we come out of current funk and rates actually get cut more than 25 bps (i remain of view that 25 bps doesn't do much and market will fafo sooner than later) but you get 6% fcf yield, growing HSD and that's probably worth 5% given where the stock is trading today which is 20-25% upside and puts our PE closer to 14-15x (let's round up). that's a $150-$160 stock at fair value today. so my preference has been adding thru leaps (the 2027 variety, not yet convinced i want to pay up for '28 considering the uncertainty i point out above in the tape - and i'd rather stack '28s at a cheaper entry if that happens and lose a bit more on the '27 exposure). so the leaps are 2.5% of my book at 3x leverage (so 7.5% effectively). i'm doing a similar thing on NXT, DECK, CPAY (all 2-2.5% leaps at 2-3x leverage) and my big position as you know from reading remains cash - 65% i still hold a lot of OSOL, which has "worked" but it's not been fun, tho have cut that substantially in the last few days and i'm leveraged short RGTI in a pretty dramatic way. it would make martin shkreli blush. admit i've been wrong here. timing tops is brutal. not recommended. i suppose i can't let the tape get away with it. i'm convinced quantum is worth exactly $0 in the pubcos today. the private names and the big tech r where the real quantum innovation is happening today. but sector is still a peanut. so these valuations will collapse. timing is everything, though. anyway. that's a long winded way of updating you all on what i'm seeing and thinking. tl;dr? think there's a lot of value in a lot of names, but economy overhang doesn't help just yet. but worth owning, still. i like the spread on osol to nav w/ etf coming up and i think quantum is a joke and rgti is probabably the most overvalued (i'm also short ionq too ;) have a good weekend. we'll get at it next week. hope you all get some sunlight and share a hug w someone u love. that's the real stuff. V