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Push Coffee Prices Sharply HigherCorn, Soybean Markets See ‘Sell the Rumor, Buy the Fact’ on USDA DataMarkets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines.This fits with what the market has been telling us since planting season this past spring.To borrow a classic line from the television program Cheers, “(Bartender) How’s the US president’s trade war treating you US soybean industry? (US Soybean Industry) Like a baby treats a diaper.”I know when I talk about real market fundamentals – the National Cash Indexes, Basis, Futures Spreads – I tend to lose a lot of you. After all, if it doesn’t come from a government report than most people in the industry don’t believe it can be real. Given this, I’m going to frame today’s discussion on the global soybean market using USDA’s latest WASDE numbers. And yes, I will scrub myself down with lye soap afterward to get rid of the stink and stain.In the global update released last Friday (September 12) we find this set of soybean numbers:China is projected to import 112.0 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2025-2026 marketing yearUnchanged from last month and up 5.5 mmt from 2024-2025 (reportedly)And tied with its largest import number from the 2023-2024 marketing yearThe latest guess for Brazil’s exports for the 2025-2026 marketing year also came in at 112.0 mmt, oddly enoughAlso unchanged from last month and up 9.9 mmt from 2024-2025 (reportedly)If realized, this would far outdistance Brazil’s previous record exports of 104.17 mmt from 2023-2024 (note how that fits with China’s record large import estimate)USDA estimated US exports at 45.86 mmt for 2025-2026Down 0.54 mmt from last month and down 5.17 mmt from 2024-2025 (reportedly)If realized this would be the lowest US export number for soybeans since 2019-2020’s 45.7 mmtWhen we look at the history of what used to be the Big 3 Global Soybean Market, a few things are clear:During the 2014-2015 marketing year (September 2014 through August 2015) the world’s two largest suppliers were near evenBrazil reportedly shipped 50.61 mmt whileThe US reportedly exported 1% less at 50.14 mmtAll while China reported imported 78.35 mmtIt was close again during the 2015-2016 marketing year with       Brazil exporting 54.38 mmtAnd the US shipping 52.86 mmt, falling 3% behindWhile China increased its imports, reportedly, to 83.23 mmtThen came the US election of 2016 (November) during the 2016-2017 marketing yearWith Brazil reportedly shipping 63.14 mmtAnd the US 7% less at 52.86 mmtAs China reportedly increased its imports again to 93.5 mmtWe all know what happened next, as the US president followed through on what he said during the campaign and started a social media driven trade war with the world’s largest buyer of soybeans – China – in January 2018. During the 2017-2018 marketing yearBrazil’s exports reportedly jumped to 76.18 mmt whileUS shipments dropped to 58.07 mmt, the first year-to-year decrease since 2012-2013While China’s imports again hit a new record high of 94.1 mmtTerms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,597.73 -9.03 (-0.14%)Dow 3045,984.22 +226.32 (+0.49%)Nasdaq22,243.90 -90.06 (-0.40%)Russell 20002,409.15 +6.12 (+0.25%)VIX16.64 +0.28 (+1.71%)Gold3,681.60 -43.50 (-1.17%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersQMMM QMMM Holdings Limited 115.00 +27.00 (+30.68%)QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. 22.09 +3.11 (+16.37%)LYFT Lyft, Inc. 22.79 +2.60 (+12.88%)ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. 15.45 +1.27 (+8.96%)PSN Parsons Corporation 82.19 +6.77 (+8.98%)Top losersGEMI Gemini Space Station, Inc. 24.35 -3.78 (-13.46%)MANU Manchester United plc 15.20 -1.21 (-7.37%)TREX Trex Company, Inc. 53.72 -4.57 (-7.84%)NXTT Next Technology Holding Inc. 22.02 -1.70 (-7.15%)FIGR Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. 38.02 -2.46 (-6.08%)Most activeOPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 9.56 +0.64 (+7.22%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 1.9054 +0.2254 (+13.42%)NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 169.86 -4.98 (-2.85%)SNAP Snap Inc. 7.98 +0.24 (+3.04%)BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. 5.79 -0.15 (-2.53%)Earnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings eventsTrending tickersSTUB StubHub Holdings, Inc. 22.05 -1.45 (-6.17%)OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 9.71 +0.79 (+8.90%)QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. 22.43 +3.44 (+18.16%)UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. 93.21 -4.62 (-4.72%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 1.9100 +0.2300 (+13.65%)Top economic events