16/12/25 Bears Need Strong Follow-through SellingCrude Palm Oil FuturesMYX:FCPO1!Tech_Trader88Monday’s candlestick (Dec. 15) was a doji bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above. In our previous report, we stated that traders would watch to see whether the bears could create a follow-through bear bar to test near the November low, or if the market would trade higher towards the 20-day EMA instead. The market traded higher, but the follow-through buying was limited, closing near the day's low. The bulls hope the selloff (Nov 26) will form a major higher low. The bulls hope to get a reversal from a large wedge pattern (Jan 17, May 8, and Nov 26). They view the current pullback as a retest of the November 26 low and want it to form a higher low major trend reversal. They must produce strong follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA to show they are clearly in control. The bears want the 20-day EMA to act as a resistance level, followed by a retest of the November low. The move is underway. They hope for a strong third leg to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being on November 13 and November 26. At the least, they want a retest of the November 26 low, even if it only forms a higher low. Fundamentals: • Production: Production indicated +5 to 10% in Pen Malaysia for the first 10 days. • Refineries: Buying interest is there at these low prices. Not paying premiums vs spot futures. Reports of high stock levels. • Exports: ITS first 15 days of Dec: down -15.89% Traders will see the strength of the retest of the November 26 low. Will it be strong, breaking below the Nov 26 low? Or will it form a higher low? So far, the retest of the low has formed a higher low (Dec 10) and has overlapping candlesticks, indicating that the bears are not decisively strong. Today (Tuesday, Dec. 16), traders will watch to see whether the bears can create a follow-through bear bar breaking below the November low. Or will the market stall around the November low area? Andrew