Gold price surgedto $4,355 per ounce today (Monday), December 15, 2025, marking its fifthconsecutive session of gains and approaching the all-time high of $4,383reached on October 20. Theprecious metal climbed 0.5% at the end of last week, testing $4,353, andcontinues trading just $28 below historical maximums. This rally represents astunning 66% year-to-date performance, significantly outpacing most traditionalasset classes.In this article, I look for answers to why gold price issurging and what the latest gold price forecasts suggest.Why Gold Is Surging? FederalReserve Rate Cuts Fuel RallyThe FederalReserve delivered its third 25-basis-point rate cut of 2025 during its December9-10 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to its lowest level in threeyears. This dovish policy stance has dramatically reduced the opportunity costof holding non-yielding assets like gold, triggering massive capital flows intoprecious metals.Marketscurrently price in a 75.6% probability of a pause at the January meeting,though Fed Chair Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams arescheduled to speak today, potentially providing fresh guidance on the policytrajectory. The central bank is simultaneously purchasing $40 billion in bondsmonthly, adding liquidity to the financial system and pressuring the dollarlower.Ten-yearU.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.2%, the highest since early September,creating a paradox where nominal rates rise but real yields fall, ahistorically bullish configuration for gold.[#highlighted-links#] As RayYoussef from NoOnes notes, "Gold's move from around $4,200 before theFed's 25-bps announcement to $4,326 reveals that smart capital is hedgingpolicy ambiguity."How High Can Gold Go?Technical Analysis Shows Strong MomentumGoldfutures are strengthening with rising bullish DMI/ADX signals, suggestingsustained upward momentum, according to Michał Pietrzyca from Bossafx. Theprice is pressuring the upper bullish range of $4,345-$4,381, with criticalresistance at the seven-week maximum near the technical pivot of $4,350.Accordingto my own technical analysis, the friday's pin bar pattern indicates supplyrejected the bull move toward all-time highs, though the new week bringsanother attempt at price discovery.Key supportlevels include the 50-day EMA combined with the psychological $4,000 threshold,followed by a secondary support zone around $3,900 where late October and earlyNovember lows reside. Deeper support sits at $3,600 (200-day EMA) and the majorrange of $3,273-$3,441, representing previous April-August highs.Silver hasaccompanied gold's ascent, reaching a record $62.37 and posting a 120%year-to-date gain, demonstrating broad-based precious metals strength.Gold Price Prediction: MajorBanks Forecast $5,000 GoldWallStreet's largest institutions have dramatically increased their gold priceforecasts, with several predicting the metal will breach $5,000 per ounce in2026:Bank ofAmerica raisedits 2026 forecast to $5,000, with an average of $4,400, stating "a 6-14%increase in investment demand, similar to this year's trend, could elevate goldto $5,000 per ounce".GoldmanSachs lifted its December 2026 target to$4,900 from $4,300, noting "risks associated with our revised gold price forecast arepredominantly tilted towards the upside, as private sector investments in thecomparatively small gold market may enhance ETF holdings beyond ourrates-implied calculations". The bank expects central bank buying toaverage 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026.HSBC projects gold could reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, raisingits average 2026 forecast to $4,600 from $3,950. The bank stated, "Unlikeprevious rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely to remain inthe gold market, even after the rally concludes, not solely for appreciationbut also gold's diversification and safe haven attributes".SociétéGénérale alsotargets $5,000 by end-2026, with head of commodity research Mike Haighdeclaring "Gold's ascent to $5000 seems increasingly inevitable".Whileconsensus forecasts cluster around $5,000, two extreme scenarios demonstrategold's potential range in 2026, from spectacular gains to significantcorrections. In their "Outrageous Predictions 2026" report, Saxo Bankoutlines two tail-risk scenarios that could send gold skyrocketing tounprecedented levels.The firstinvolves "Q-Day," when a quantum computer breaks standard digitalencryption. Neil Wilson, Saxo's UK Investor Strategist, warns this wouldtrigger trust collapse in digital assets and traditional banking systems."Bitcoin collapses toward zero. Fear spills into traditional finance... Goldrockets toward $10,000 as the ultimate 'no-password' asset," Wilsonprojects.Balancingthe euphoric forecasts, the World Gold Council's Gold Outlook 2026 reportpresents four distinct macroeconomic scenarios, including a bearish"Reflation Return" path where goldcould crash 5-20% from current levels.Major Bank Gold PriceForecasts Table 2026What's Next for GoldPrices?Criticaldata releases this week could determine gold's trajectory toward all-timehighs. Tuesday brings U.S. employment reports for October and November,including nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate,metrics that will shape expectations for the Fed's January meeting.The Bank ofJapan meeting on December 19 represents another potential pivot point, as anytightening by the BOJ could trigger yen strength and broader currency marketvolatility.Pietrzycaadded that "uncertainty and risk aversion may increase capital flows tosafe havens" while highlighting important technical support at $3,919.FAQ: Gold Price Analysis QuestionsWill gold reach $5,000 perounce?Bank ofAmerica, HSBC, and Société Générale all forecast gold will hit $5,000 in 2026,driven by continued Fed easing, central bank buying, and ETF inflows. GoldmanSachs predicts $4,900 by December 2026. The consensus among major institutionsplaces 2026 forecasts between $4,000 and $5,300 per ounce.Why is gold price surgingright now?Gold issurging due to the Federal Reserve's third rate cut of 2025, dollar weakness,safe-haven demand from tech sector rotation, central bank diversification awayfrom U.S. Treasuries, and robust ETF inflows. Lower interest rates reduce theopportunity cost of holding gold while geopolitical uncertainty increasessafe-haven appeal.Is gold a good investmentin 2026?Expertsremain bullish on gold for 2026, though they caution that repeating 2025's 66%returns is unlikely. Most analysts expect double-digit percentage gainssupported by Fed policy, dollar weakness, and structural demand from centralbanks. Gold performs best as a long-term investment during periods of economicuncertainty and currency debasement.What drives gold priceshigher?Key driversinclude Federal Reserve monetary policy and real interest rates, U.S. dollarstrength, inflation expectations, central bank reserve diversification,geopolitical risks, and physical demand from technology and jewelry industries.When real yields fall or turn negative, gold becomes more attractive relativeto bonds and cash equivalents.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.