This week is loaded with long-delayed government data releases, including on employment and inflation, which will provide a reality check on the economy’s performance in the final weeks of 2025. This week’s earnings reports from FedEx (NYSE:FDX), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Carnival (NYSE:CCL), and Jabil (NYSE:JBL) could also be illuminating.Last week’s Federal Open Market Committee event produced a third rate cut this year, three dissenting votes, and the prospect of a weaker labor market than anyone knew: Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested there may have been a "systemic overcount" of job increases since April—perhaps as much as 60,000 per month.The markets will pay close attention this week to some talking Fed heads. They include Governor Stephen Miran (Mon), tackling the inflation outlook, and Governor Christopher Waller (Wed), offering his latest economic outlook. It’s also a busy week for central banks worldwide. Get ready for rate decisions from the European Central Bank (Thu), Bank of England (Thu), and Bank of Japan (Fri).Here are the data reports most likely to help Fed officials and investors alike discern whether slowing growth or rising inflation is the bigger concern:1. EmploymentThe unemployment rate was 4.4% in September. October’s jobless rate will remain a permanent gap in the data. October’s payroll employment will be reported along with November’s reading (Tue). Markets looking for direction into year-end will scrutinize the payroll data for any hints that Powell might be onto something.We’re expecting a 40,000-job increase for both months. November’s jobless rate should hold steady at 4.4% given the low pace of initial unemployment claims (chart). The latest weekly jobless claims data (Thu) should confirm as much.2. CPIOctober’s official CPI will remain forever MIA. November’s headline CPI (Thu) should be up 0.32% following a 0.18% increase in October, according to the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting. On a y/y basis, both remain stuck around 3.0%. Inflation would have been closer to 2.0% by now but for tariffs that boosted durable goods inflation (chart).3. Retail sales September’s modest 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales was surprisingly weak given the strength of the Redbook Retail Sales Index (chart). The October data (Wed) should provide a timely update showing that consumers are still doing what they do best. On the other hand, existing home sales for November (Fri) and the December consumer sentiment index (Fri) are likely still depressed.4. Fed business surveysThe New York Fed business survey (Mon) starts the week, followed by reports from the Philly Fed (Thu) and the Kansas City Fed (Thu). These regional surveys have helped to predict the national ISM M-PMI (chart). However, they have been overly pessimistic predictors of real GDP growth for quite a while.Original Post