Early Call for NVDA: Overheated ChipsNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDATopChartPatternsEarly Call for NVDA: Overheated Chips Hello traders! 👋 I am kicking off a very personal, long-term series of posts today. For the first time, I am revealing the charts that truly guide my market vision, the deep-dive long-term analysis. I usually share my tactics and daily patterns that are simpler to follow, but the reality is that there is a larger strategy behind the scenes that I haven't shown until today. I am sharing this because it might help you prepare for a scenario I don't like. The first stock in this new series is NVDA . And that is no coincidence. The Dangers of the Upper Channel 📉 The long-term NVDA chart is scary. It is a rising channel that NVDA has respected for years without much trouble. However, if you have read anything about chart patterns, you know that hovering at the very top of such a steep channel is not a good sign, it usually implies corrections. And I’m not the one saying it, NVDA is saying it. Every time we have been in this upper zone, the market has ended up correcting, and seriously. Look at the drops marked with orange arrows: • 50% correction in 2018 • 65% correction in 2021 • 40% correction in 2024 And now, we are back in the danger zone. This alone should make you cautious. A return to the bottom of the channel would mean another 60% correction. Be very careful with this. But that’s the "nice" part, my friend... Volumes Have Vanished 👻 Look at 2018 and the monthly volumes during that first drop. Just before it happened, price kept rising while volume hit multi-month lows. It was the first warning that something was up—major market transactions disappeared. Institutional flows weren't there to fuel the rocket. In 2021, the situation was similar: price approached the channel top, and volume evaporated again. And recently, in 2024, we saw a very similar setup. With even lower and decreasing volumes. Today, we are in a similar situation for the fourth time. We are at the top of the channel, and there is no volume. It has been missing since April and May, right when the price started recovering. We are going up on inertia, the big players have left the building. And if that weren't enough, recent months have formed a Bearish Engulfing, a classic exhaustion pattern. 🎲 A Game of Probabilities Now, you might say, "But this hasn't happened yet." Do we know for sure what will happen? True, anything is possible. But I’ll leave you with a few images so you can judge for yourself. The trend-end case for DG : The trend-end case for INTC : The case for NKE : We could go on all day. As you know, the stock market is a game of probabilities, and being long NVDA doesn't look like the best hand to play right now. To better time this potential correction, I recommend watching the Daily timeframe, where a Head and Shoulders pattern could deal the final blow to NVDA if it loses the $165-$169 zone. 🔓 Unlocking the 2026 Watchlist Next week, I am opening the vault on my personal long-term charts for the 2026 cycle. We are stepping away from the daily noise to look at the structural truth of the market. I want this series to be valuable for your portfolio. You tell me and asset and I share with you the long term chart and all the insights. Feel free to slide into my DMs or leave a comment below. 🤝 Deal?